Amcor Plc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryPackaging & Containers Beta (adjusted)0.73 Intrinsic Value $46.38median of 6 methods · middle span $45-$86based on filings through 30 Jun 2025 Market Price $41.86Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $19.3B Enterprise Value $26.6B Shares Outstanding 463.8M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date1 Jan 2027 Last ex-dividend4 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Amcor enters its transition period with improving operating momentum: fourth-quarter comparable volumes grew approximately 0.5%, adjusted diluted EPS increased to USD 1.23, and fiscal-2026 free cash flow reached USD 1.303 billion. The Berry combination offers a material earnings catalyst through a stated USD 650 million synergy opportunity, but execution risk remains meaningful because fiscal-2026 organic sales declined, net debt was USD 12.897 billion, integration work continues and management is still reviewing non-core assets. At the issuer-displayed NYSE price of USD 46.67, the risk/reward supports a Hold pending evidence that positive volume growth, additional synergy capture and deleveraging persist together. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$42.00 Mean target$50.18 High · most bullish analyst$60.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $35.0017% Volumes turn negative, integration savings fail to offset weak price and mix, or cash conversion disappoints, leaving leverage above management's outlook. A slower synergy ramp or disruptive portfolio actions would reduce confidence in the post-Berry earnings and capital-return proposition. Base CaseCentral scenario $50.1858% Matches the consensus meanAmcor delivers transition-period adjusted EPS within USD 1.80-1.90, reaches leverage of approximately 3.5x-3.6x and continues capturing Berry synergies, while modest volume growth and input-cost volatility limit multiple expansion. Bull CaseUpside scenario $60.0025% Synergies continue ahead of the original integration trajectory, underlying volumes remain positive, portfolio optimization improves business quality and cash generation supports faster deleveraging. Successful execution toward the USD 650 million synergy objective could sustain double-digit earnings momentum and justify a higher equity value. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |