Ambev SA ADR Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryBrewers Beta (adjusted)0.50 Intrinsic Value $1.46median of 5 methods · middle span $0-$2based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $2.92Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 50% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-50%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $45B Shares Outstanding 15.6B diluted Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend23 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Ambev entered the second half of 2026 with favorable operating momentum: second-quarter organic net revenue increased 6.1%, normalized EBITDA increased 8.9%, and normalized EBITDA margin expanded to 31.6%, despite consolidated organic volume growth of only 1.4%. Brazil Beer was the principal strength, while Brazil NAB, Latin America South and Canada recorded volume declines. The issuer's analyst-coverage page lists 18 firms, with Neutral the modal recommendation (10 Neutral, 3 Buy and 5 Sell). A Hold view is therefore appropriate pending evidence that portfolio-led growth and margin expansion can persist beyond World Cup-related demand and brand investment. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$2.60 Mean target$3.34 High · most bullish analyst$4.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $2.6020% Volume weakness broadens beyond Brazil NAB, Latin America South and Canada; price and mix no longer compensate for softer demand; and foreign-exchange, commodity, distribution and marketing costs reduce operating leverage. Normalized EBITDA growth falls below revenue growth and consolidated margin declines below 30%. Base CaseCentral scenario $3.3456% Matches the consensus meanBrazil Beer remains constructive but World Cup-related demand normalizes. Revenue management and portfolio mix continue offsetting modest consolidated volume growth, while weakness in Brazil NAB, Latin America South and Canada remains contained. Normalized EBITDA continues growing at least broadly with revenue. Bull CaseUpside scenario $4.0024% Brazil Beer sustains volume and market-share momentum, premium and balanced-choice brands continue expanding, and digital channels improve execution. Revenue growth remains materially above volume growth while disciplined costs allow normalized EBITDA to outgrow revenue and preserve a margin above the second-quarter level. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |