Amarin Corp ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Amarin Corp ADR

AMRNNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryPharmaceuticals

Beta (adjusted)0.84

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $13.00Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $274.6M

Enterprise Value $131M

Shares Outstanding 21.1M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Amarin Corporation plc is navigating a critical transition from a direct commercialization model to a highly streamlined, partner-driven international strategy. Following its major June 2025 Global Restructuring, the company has successfully lowered its operating expenses by transitioning European VAZKEPA commercialization to Recordati S.p.A. while maintaining a highly efficient, cash-generating U.S. franchise for VASCEPA. While the company has achieved positive cash flow for two consecutive quarters (Q4 2025 and Q1 2026) and maintains a robust debt-free balance sheet with over $307 million in cash, top-line growth remains constrained by extensive generic competition in the United States. Consequently, a Hold recommendation is warranted as the market monitors the long-term execution of its international partnerships and the stability of its domestic cash engine.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets1 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$12.00

Mean target$12.00

High · most bullish analyst$12.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$5.4015%

The bear case is defined by accelerated market share loss of VASCEPA in the U.S. due to aggressive generic pricing, coupled with slower-than-anticipated commercial uptake of VAZKEPA in Europe by Recordati. If restructuring savings are offset by unexpected litigation costs or if international partners fail to expand distribution, the company could return to a net cash-burn position, eroding its balance sheet cushion.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$12.0060%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes stable U.S. VASCEPA volumes throughout 2026, supported by exclusive PBM contracts, alongside gradual commercial progress by Recordati in Europe. Operating expenses are expected to remain low, allowing the company to achieve its target of full-year positive cash flow in 2026. However, overall revenue growth will remain modest due to ongoing generic erosion in the U.S., keeping the stock range-bound near analyst consensus estimates.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$13.0025%

The bull case is driven by rapid, high-margin international expansion of VAZKEPA through Recordati in Europe and other regional partners globally, combined with stronger-than-expected resilience of the U.S. VASCEPA franchise. If Recordati successfully secures favorable pricing and reimbursement across major European markets, licensing and royalty revenues could surge. Additionally, if the updated ACC/AHA multisociety dyslipidemia guidelines accelerate clinical adoption of icosapent ethyl (IPE), Amarin could achieve sustained profitability ahead of schedule.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong balance sheet with $307.8 million in cash and short-term investments and zero debt as of March 31, 2026.
Successful execution of the June 2025 Global Restructuring, which has already realized $31 million of its $70 million annual cost-savings target.
Two consecutive quarters of positive cash flow (Q4 2025 and Q1 2026) with expectations to remain cash flow positive for the full year 2026.
Favorable clinical guideline updates, such as the 2026 ACC/AHA/Multisociety Dyslipidemia Guideline Update, supporting the clinical role of IPE.

Key Investment Risks

Heavy reliance on a single product family (icosapent ethyl / VASCEPA / VAZKEPA).
Severe and ongoing generic competition in the United States, which limits domestic pricing power and long-term revenue growth.
Dependence on third-party commercial partners (e.g., Recordati in Europe, Edding in China) for international execution and royalty generation.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to achieve positive cash flow for the full year 2026.
A material decline in U.S. VASCEPA volumes or loss of exclusive status with major national pharmacy benefit managers.
Slower-than-expected commercial rollouts or poor sales performance of VAZKEPA by Recordati in key European markets like Italy.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.