Amalgamated Financial Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryBanks - Regional Beta (adjusted)0.87 Intrinsic Value $29.48median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $47.57Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 38% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.4B Shares Outstanding 29.9M diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Amalgamated Financial Corp. (AMAL) continues to demonstrate robust top-line performance, driven by strong net interest margin expansion (reaching 3.75% in Q1 2026) and steady deposit gathering within its unique mission-driven, political, and non-profit niches. However, Q1 2026 earnings highlighted emerging credit headwinds, specifically a $9.2 million incremental reserve build tied to a single $78.0 million multifamily borrower relationship that was placed on nonaccrual status. While management has raised full-year 2026 net interest income guidance to $333 million, the near-term outlook is balanced by these localized credit quality pressures and potential seasonal volatility in political deposits. Consequently, a Hold recommendation is warranted as the market monitors the resolution of the nonperforming multifamily assets. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$53.00 Mean target$53.50 High · most bullish analyst$54.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Additional multifamily or commercial real estate borrowers experience distress, leading to further nonaccrual downgrades and elevated credit provisions. Deposit costs rise faster than asset yields, compressing NIM below 3.50%. Seasonal drawdowns in political deposits force the bank to rely on higher-cost wholesale funding. Base CaseCentral scenario The bank successfully manages its isolated multifamily credit exposure without broader systemic contagion in its loan portfolio. Net interest margin remains stable around 3.70%-3.75%, supported by high-yielding commercial loan growth and disciplined deposit pricing. Political deposit inflows remain robust through the 2026 mid-term election cycle, supporting balance sheet expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |