Alx Oncology Holdings Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Alx Oncology Holdings Inc

ALXONASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)0.59

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $1.39Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $192.2M

Enterprise Value $179.2M

Shares Outstanding 119.7M diluted

Next Earnings Date31 Dec 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

ALX Oncology is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing therapies targeting the CD47 checkpoint pathway. The company's lead candidate, evorpacept, is designed to block CD47 with an inactive Fc domain, minimizing the hematologic toxicities (such as anemia and thrombocytopenia) commonly associated with competing CD47-blocking agents. Following a strategic pivot to focus on biomarker-selected patient populations (specifically high CD47 expression), the company has demonstrated highly promising clinical efficacy, including a 100% objective response rate in a small cohort of HER2-positive breast cancer patients treated with evorpacept and zanidatamab. Backed by a robust cash position of $169.1 million as of Q1 2026, which extends its operational runway into the first half of 2028, ALX Oncology is well-positioned to achieve critical clinical milestones without near-term dilution risk.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets5 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$4.00

Mean target$4.60

High · most bullish analyst$6.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$1.0020%

The bear case is triggered if the CD47-high biomarker selection hypothesis fails to show statistically significant or durable clinical benefit in the larger 80-patient cohort of the ASPEN-09-Breast trial. Additionally, any unexpected safety signals or dose-limiting toxicities in the ALX2004 ADC program would severely limit pipeline optionality. In the absence of positive clinical data, the company would struggle to secure development partnerships, and its valuation would decline toward its cash floor as the runway depletes toward 2028.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$4.6050%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes steady clinical execution of the ASPEN-09-Breast trial and the ALX2004 Phase 1 trial. Evorpacept continues to show a superior safety profile compared to active-Fc CD47 competitors, and the company maintains a disciplined cash burn rate. The cash runway remains secure through the first half of 2028, allowing the company to reach its mid-2027 breast cancer data readout without requiring dilutive financing. Valuation is supported by consensus analyst targets reflecting the de-risked clinical path.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$6.0030%

The bull case is predicated on the clinical validation of the CD47-high biomarker selection strategy. If the ongoing ASPEN-09-Breast Phase 2 trial delivers strong topline data in mid-2027, evorpacept could establish itself as a cornerstone therapy in HER2-positive breast cancer. Furthermore, positive safety readouts from the ALX2004 EGFR-targeted ADC program in late 2026 would expand the company's pipeline value. Under this scenario, the company's unique non-toxic CD47-blocking mechanism would attract a major pharmaceutical partnership or acquisition, driving substantial valuation upside.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Differentiated CD47-blocking mechanism utilizing an inactive Fc domain, which avoids the severe cytopenias and hematologic toxicities seen with competing CD47 candidates.
Strong clinical proof-of-concept in biomarker-selected populations, highlighted by a 100% objective response rate (5/5 patients) in HER2-positive, CD47-high breast cancer patients treated with evorpacept and zanidatamab.
Robust balance sheet with $169.1 million in cash, cash equivalents, and investments as of March 31, 2026, providing an extended operational runway through the first half of 2028.
Strengthened leadership team with the appointment of Jeff Knight as Chief Development and Operating Officer in April 2026, bringing over 30 years of oncology development experience.

Key Investment Risks

Pre-revenue clinical-stage risk, with operations entirely dependent on clinical trial success and external financing.
Pipeline concentration, as the company's valuation is heavily tied to the clinical success of its lead candidate, evorpacept.
Regulatory hurdles, including the FDA's previous request for a Phase 3 study for accelerated approval in gastric cancer, which led the company to halt its U.S. gastric registration path in favor of seeking partnerships.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure of the ASPEN-09-Breast Phase 2 trial to meet its primary efficacy endpoints or validate the CD47-high biomarker selection strategy in mid-2027.
Severe or unexpected adverse safety events in the ALX2004 Phase 1 trial or evorpacept combination trials.
Failure to secure strategic development partnerships for the gastric cancer program or other solid tumor indications, accelerating cash burn.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.