Alumis Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Alumis Inc

ALMSNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)-0.19

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $7.39Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $956.5M

Enterprise Value $929.7M

Shares Outstanding 146M diluted

Next Earnings Date31 Dec 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Alumis Inc. represents a highly compelling late-stage immunology play, anchored by its next-generation, highly selective oral TYK2 inhibitor, envudeucitinib (formerly ESK-001). Following the successful Phase 3 ONWARD1 and ONWARD2 trials in plaque psoriasis, which demonstrated leading skin clearance (65% PASI 90 at week 24) and a favorable safety profile, the company is on track to submit its NDA in Q4 2026. With a robust cash runway extending into Q4 2027 ($569.5M as of Q1 2026) and an upcoming pivotal Phase 2b readout in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in Q3 2026, Alumis is well-positioned to unlock a 'pipeline-in-a-pill' opportunity. While the dermatology market is highly competitive, envudeucitinib's best-in-class efficacy profile and lack of fasting requirements offer strong commercial differentiation.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets9 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$25.00

Mean target$40.33

High · most bullish analyst$55.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$25.0020%

The FDA requests additional safety or manufacturing data during the NDA review for envudeucitinib, delaying approval into 2028. The Phase 2b SLE trial fails to show statistical significance, limiting envudeucitinib's potential to a single indication in a crowded psoriasis market. High cash burn forces a highly dilutive equity raise under unfavorable market conditions.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$40.3350%

Matches the consensus mean

Alumis successfully submits the NDA for envudeucitinib in plaque psoriasis in Q4 2026, leading to FDA approval in late 2027. The Phase 2b SLE trial meets its primary endpoints, justifying advancement into Phase 3. Cash runway remains secure into late 2027, allowing the company to reach regulatory milestones without immediate highly dilutive financing.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$51.0030%

Envudeucitinib achieves best-in-class commercial adoption in plaque psoriasis, capturing significant market share from Sotyktu due to superior PASI 90/100 clearance rates. Simultaneously, the Phase 2b SLE readout in Q3 2026 is highly positive, establishing envudeucitinib as the premier oral therapy for lupus. Strategic out-licensing of lonigutamab brings in non-dilutive upfront cash, extending the runway beyond 2028.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Highly differentiated Phase 3 clinical data in plaque psoriasis showing rapid onset and superior skin clearance (65% PASI 90 and 40% PASI 100 at week 24).
Strong balance sheet with $569.5 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, providing a runway into Q4 2027.
Upcoming high-impact catalyst with the potentially pivotal Phase 2b SLE topline data expected in Q3 2026.

Key Investment Risks

Intense commercial competition from established biologics and oral TYK2 inhibitors like Bristol Myers Squibb's Sotyktu and Takeda's zasocitinib.
Regulatory risks associated with the upcoming NDA submission and potential FDA class-wide labeling concerns for JAK/TYK2 inhibitors.
High cash burn rate typical of late-stage biopharmaceutical companies transitioning to commercial operations.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

FDA refusal to file or complete rejection (CRL) of the envudeucitinib NDA in plaque psoriasis.
Failure of the Phase 2b LUMUS trial in systemic lupus erythematosus to meet its primary efficacy endpoints.
Unexpected serious adverse safety signals emerging from the ongoing long-term safety extension studies (ONWARD3).

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.