Alto Neuroscience Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)1.10 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $25.53Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $1B Enterprise Value $774.3M Shares Outstanding 42M diluted Next Earnings Date11 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Alto Neuroscience is a pioneer in precision psychiatry, leveraging its proprietary Precision Psychiatry Platform™ to identify patient-specific biomarkers (EEG, neurocognitive tests, and wearables) to match patients with targeted therapies. While the clinical failure of ALTO-100 in MDD in late 2024 and the missed primary endpoint for ALTO-101 in CIAS in early 2026 have introduced volatility, the company remains highly capitalized with approximately $264 million in cash following a March 2026 PIPE. This cash runway extends through 2029, fully funding multiple high-impact readouts. The upcoming mid-2026 Phase 2b readout for ALTO-300 in MDD and the 2H 2026 Phase 2b readout for ALTO-100 in bipolar depression represent major near-term catalysts that could validate the platform's commercial and clinical viability. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$26.00 Mean target$38.42 High · most bullish analyst$50.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $10.00 Both ALTO-300 and ALTO-100 fail to meet their primary endpoints in their respective Phase 2b trials in 2026, mirroring the previous ALTO-100 MDD failure. This would severely undermine the credibility of the Precision Psychiatry Platform, leaving the company dependent on the early-stage ALTO-207 program and leading to a significant downward re-rating of the stock. Base CaseCentral scenario $35.13 Alto delivers positive, clinically meaningful results in at least one of its major upcoming Phase 2b readouts (ALTO-300 or ALTO-100) in 2026, establishing a clear regulatory path forward. The company successfully initiates the Phase 2b trial of ALTO-207 in TRD. The strong cash position of $264 million limits downside risk and supports operations through clinical adjustments. Bull CaseUpside scenario $50.00 ALTO-300 achieves statistical significance in its Phase 2b MDD trial, demonstrating a robust reduction in MADRS scores for the EEG biomarker-positive subgroup. Concurrently, ALTO-100 succeeds in bipolar depression, and ALTO-207 enters a successful Phase 3 trial by early 2027. The Precision Psychiatry Platform is validated, attracting lucrative big pharma partnerships and positioning Alto as the leader in personalized mental health treatments. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |