Altisource Portfolio Solutions SA Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryReal Estate Services Beta (adjusted)0.48 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $6.69Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $76.4M Shares Outstanding 12.9M diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Dec 2012 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Altisource Portfolio Solutions S.A. is undergoing a pivotal transition from a highly concentrated legacy customer base (historically tied to Ocwen/Rithm) to a highly diversified marketplace model. The Q2 2026 results confirm that service revenue growth from new customer wins (up 19% YoY) is successfully outpacing legacy runoff. While near-term margins are pressured by onboarding costs and a slow-to-normalize foreclosure market, the structural increase in Hubzu inventory (+30% sequentially) and a robust $25M-$31M sales pipeline position the company for significant operating leverage as macro delinquency volumes gradually return to historical averages. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$8.00 Mean target$8.00 High · most bullish analyst$8.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $4.5020% The U.S. housing market remains exceptionally tight with historically low delinquency rates, delaying the anticipated foreclosure volume recovery. Onboarding costs for new sales wins remain elevated, keeping operating cash flow negative and limiting the company's ability to deleverage its $169M debt load. Base CaseCentral scenario $8.0050% Matches the consensus meanService revenue grows within the guided range of $165M to $185M for FY 2026, and Adjusted EBITDA lands between $15M and $20M. Legacy Rithm revenue stabilizes by Q4 2026. The company continues to execute opportunistic debt repurchases at a discount, gradually improving its net leverage profile. Wall Street consensus price target of $8.00 is achieved. Bull CaseUpside scenario $10.0030% Foreclosure starts and sales accelerate rapidly due to normalizing borrower loss mitigation options and a softening housing market. Hubzu inventory continues its steep upward trajectory, driving high-margin transaction fees. New customer onboarding costs subside, allowing Adjusted EBITDA margins to expand back toward historical mid-teens, pushing the stock toward the high end of analyst targets. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |