Altimmune Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Altimmune Inc

ALTNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)0.46

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $2.86Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $556.3M

Enterprise Value $528.1M

Shares Outstanding 194.5M diluted

Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend20 Jan 2017

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Altimmune is a late clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company whose investment thesis centers on its lead candidate, pemvidutide, a balanced 1:1 GLP-1/glucagon dual receptor agonist. Pemvidutide is uniquely positioned to address serious liver and metabolic diseases, including metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), alcohol use disorder (AUD), and alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD). The drug's differentiated clinical profile—demonstrating robust liver fat reduction, fibrosis regression, and class-leading lean mass preservation during weight loss—provides a strong competitive edge. Backed by a significantly strengthened balance sheet with approximately $535 million in pro forma cash, Altimmune has extended its operational runway through key Phase 3 milestones, mitigating near-term financing risks and positioning the company for substantial long-term value creation.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets10 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$2.50

Mean target$15.45

High · most bullish analyst$28.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

The bear case involves delays in initiating the PERFORMA Phase 3 MASH trial, safety or tolerability signals emerging in the ongoing RESTORE or RECLAIM trials, or a failure to secure a strategic partner, forcing Altimmune to fund expensive Phase 3 trials independently. This would accelerate cash burn and lead to further dilutive equity raises, depressing the stock toward the lower end of analyst estimates.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The base case assumes successful initiation of the global PERFORMA Phase 3 MASH trial in H2 2026 and positive topline readouts from the RECLAIM Phase 2 AUD trial in Q3 2026. Pemvidutide continues to demonstrate its differentiated profile of lean mass preservation and significant liver fat reduction. The company's strong cash position of $535 million provides a solid runway to advance clinical programs, while the stock moves closer to the consensus analyst target as clinical execution progresses.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

The bull case for Altimmune centers on its lead candidate, pemvidutide, a balanced GLP-1/glucagon dual agonist. Unlike pure GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, pemvidutide's 1:1 balanced ratio drives superior liver fat clearance and metabolic benefits, making it a highly differentiated asset for MASH (metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis) and serious liver diseases. Key pillars of the bull case include: (1) Outstanding Phase 2b IMPACT trial data showing significant MASH resolution, non-invasive fibrosis marker improvements (ELF, LSM), and a remarkably low treatment-discontinuation rate (~1%) compared to competitors; (2) FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation which accelerates regulatory timelines; (3) A fortress balance sheet with approximately $535 million in cash (as of April 30, 2026) following successful capital raises, which management projects will fund operations through the Phase 3 readout in 2029; and (4) Significant valuation disconnect, with the stock trading near its net cash value, making it an attractive M&A target for large pharma seeking a differentiated liver-metabolic franchise.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Differentiated clinical profile of pemvidutide, showing balanced 1:1 GLP-1/glucagon activity that preserves lean muscle mass while achieving significant weight loss and liver fat reduction.
Breakthrough Therapy and Fast Track designations from the FDA for MASH, alongside Fast Track designation for AUD, highlighting strong regulatory support and potential for expedited pathways.
Robust balance sheet with approximately $535 million in pro forma cash as of April 30, 2026, providing an extended operational runway through pivotal Phase 3 data readouts.
Multiple near-term clinical catalysts, including Phase 2 AUD topline data and Phase 2 ALD enrollment completion in Q3 2026, followed by Phase 3 MASH trial initiation in H2 2026.

Key Investment Risks

High clinical and regulatory development risks typical of late-stage biopharmaceutical companies, with a binary outcome dependent on pemvidutide's Phase 3 success.
Intense competition in the MASH and obesity spaces from established pharmaceutical giants (e.g., Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk) and other clinical-stage biotechs (e.g., Viking Therapeutics, Madrigal).
Potential for future shareholder dilution, as evidenced by recent equity offerings and plans to increase authorized common stock from 200 million to 400 million shares.
Dependence on securing a strategic partner to successfully commercialize pemvidutide and co-fund large-scale global clinical trials.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure of the RECLAIM Phase 2 AUD trial to meet its primary efficacy endpoints or showing unfavorable safety signals in Q3 2026.
Significant delays in the initiation or patient enrollment of the global PERFORMA Phase 3 MASH trial in H2 2026.
Unexpected regulatory hurdles or clinical holds imposed by the FDA or EMA on the pemvidutide development program.
Rapid depletion of cash reserves due to unmanaged operating expenses, leading to premature and highly dilutive financing rounds.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.