Alpine Income Property Trust Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryDiversified REITs Beta (adjusted)0.70 Intrinsic Value $16.02median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $17.35Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 8% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $332.4M Enterprise Value $697.2M Shares Outstanding 17.4M diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend11 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Alpine Income Property Trust (NYSE: PINE) presents a compelling value proposition within the net lease REIT sector. The company is successfully executing a dual-strategy of growing its high-quality, single-tenant retail property portfolio (predominantly leased to investment-grade and credit-rated tenants like Walmart and Lowe's) while strategically complementing it with high-yielding commercial loan originations. Despite a minor GAAP EPS miss in Q1 2026, PINE's operational cash generation remains robust, as evidenced by strong FFO/AFFO performance. Management's upward revision of 2026 investment volume guidance to $170M–$200M and AFFO guidance to $2.11–$2.15 per share highlights strong growth momentum that is expected to outpace many larger net-lease peers. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$19.50 Mean target$21.41 High · most bullish analyst$22.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $18.0010% Persistent high interest rates increase the cost of capital, narrowing the spread on new acquisitions. Credit deterioration or store closures among major retail tenants (e.g., pharmacies or discount retail) lead to leasing gaps, while defaults or non-accruals in the commercial loan portfolio pressure cash flows and lead to a dividend cut. Base CaseCentral scenario $21.4160% Matches the consensus meanPINE successfully executes its revised 2026 investment guidance of $170M–$200M, maintaining high occupancy levels above 99% and achieving the midpoint of its revised AFFO guidance ($2.13 per share). The company continues to pay its attractive quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share (yielding ~6%), supported by stable cash flows from long-term triple-net leases. Bull CaseUpside scenario $22.0030% Accelerated capital recycling and accretive commercial loan originations drive double-digit AFFO growth. The spread between acquisition yields (blended at 14.1% in Q1 2026) and the company's low weighted average interest rate of 4.15% remains highly profitable. Multiple expansion occurs as the market recognizes the stability of the underlying retail cash flows and rewards PINE with a valuation closer to its net-lease peers. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |