Alphabet Inc. Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryInteractive Media & Services Beta (adjusted)1.16 Intrinsic Value $414.49median of 6 methods · middle span $231-$545based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $344.08Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 20% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.2T Enterprise Value $4.3T Shares Outstanding 12.3B diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Alphabet entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: Search & Other revenue grew 17%, Google Cloud revenue grew 82%, Cloud backlog reached $514 billion, and Gemini reached 950 million monthly active users. These indicators support a favorable long-term AI and cloud thesis. The offset is an unusually capital-intensive expansion cycle: second-quarter capital expenditures were $44.9 billion, free cash flow was negative $5.9 billion, and management raised full-year 2026 capital-expenditure guidance to $195-$205 billion while expecting another significant increase in 2027. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$340.00 Mean target$427.52 High · most bullish analyst$515.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $340.0017% Search growth falls below 10% as AI-related monetization and competitive execution weaken; Cloud growth and backlog conversion disappoint while third-party capacity, integration costs, and depreciation drive margin below 30%. Capital expenditures exceed the $205 billion guidance ceiling and free cash flow remains negative for multiple quarters. Base CaseCentral scenario $427.5258% Matches the consensus meanSearch remains a durable double-digit grower but faces tougher comparisons, while Cloud growth moderates from 82% and remains the principal incremental growth engine. Elevated capital expenditures and depreciation constrain free-cash-flow conversion, and temporary use of third-party capacity pressures Cloud margin, but backlog and AI adoption support continued expansion. Bull CaseUpside scenario $515.0025% Search sustains mid-teens growth as AI experiences expand query volume and preserve monetization; Cloud remains supply constrained because demand stays strong, converts a meaningful portion of its $514 billion backlog, and maintains operating margin above 35%. Gemini consumer and enterprise adoption broadens, allowing the elevated infrastructure program to generate attractive returns. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |