Alpha Teknova Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryLife Sciences Tools & Services Beta (adjusted)0.79 Intrinsic Value $5.24median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $8.90Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 41% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $477.8M Enterprise Value $482.7M Shares Outstanding 53.7M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Alpha Teknova is well-positioned to capitalize on a recovering biopharma spending environment, supported by its state-of-the-art modular manufacturing facility and strong customer relationships in high-growth areas like cell and gene therapy. Following significant capital investments since 2021, the company is transitioning from a heavy investment phase to operational scaling, which is driving gross margin expansion and narrowing net losses. With a solid cash position and a clear path to EBITDA breakeven, the stock offers compelling upside as clinical customers advance their therapies toward commercialization. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$7.00 Mean target$9.00 High · most bullish analyst$12.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $5.0015% Prolonged capital constraints among small and mid-sized biotech clients limit revenue growth to low single digits. Slower-than-expected scaling of the clinical pipeline delays EBITDA breakeven beyond 2027, requiring additional dilutive capital raises to sustain operations. Base CaseCentral scenario $8.0060% Gradual recovery in biopharma spending supports full-year 2026 revenue of $42 million to $44 million with gross margins in the mid-30% range. Free cash outflow remains well-controlled under $10 million, and the company moves steadily toward EBITDA breakeven as annualized revenue approaches the $52 million to $57 million threshold in 2027. Bull CaseUpside scenario $12.0025% Rapid recovery in biotech funding leads to accelerated clinical trial progression, driving Clinical Solutions revenue growth above 50% annually. Operational leverage from the Hollister facility expansion pushes gross margins past 40% ahead of schedule, achieving Adjusted EBITDA positive status by early 2027. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |