Alpha Tau Medical Ltd Dossier - Source-backed chat

Alpha Tau Medical Ltd

DRTSNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)1.11

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $14.91Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $1.4B

Enterprise Value $1.4B

Shares Outstanding 80.6M diluted

Next Earnings Date19 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Alpha Tau Medical Ltd. is a clinical-stage oncology therapeutics company pioneering Diffusing Alpha-emitters Radiation Therapy (Alpha DaRT) for solid tumors. The company's unique technology delivers highly potent, localized alpha radiation directly inside tumors, sparing healthy tissue and stimulating systemic immune responses. With five parallel clinical trials approved in the U.S. and a newly established strategic collaboration with Tolmar International for the U.S. prostate cancer market, Alpha Tau is well-positioned to transition from a clinical-stage micro-cap to a commercial-stage oncology leader. Key upcoming readouts in recurrent cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC), glioblastoma (GBM), and pancreatic cancer serve as major near-term catalysts.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets5 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$8.00

Mean target$14.40

High · most bullish analyst$17.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

The bear case reflects potential clinical trial delays, safety concerns (such as serious adverse events in brain or pancreatic trials), or slower-than-expected commercial adoption. Continued high cash burn without near-term product revenue could lead to equity dilution despite the Tolmar partnership.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The base case assumes successful completion of the ReSTART pivotal trial in recurrent cutaneous SCC with top-line data by year-end 2026, leading to FDA approval in 2027. It also factors in steady enrollment in the REGAIN glioblastoma trial and the IMPACT pancreatic cancer trial. The strategic partnership with Tolmar provides non-dilutive funding and commercial infrastructure, reducing financial risk.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Pioneering localized alpha-radiation therapy with high relative biological effectiveness (RBE) and minimal systemic toxicity.
Strong clinical signals, including 100% local disease control in early glioblastoma and pancreatic cancer trials.
Transformative strategic collaboration with Tolmar International, securing $35M in upfront funding/equity and up to $161.5M in milestones.
Robust liquidity position with $80.2M in cash and deposits as of March 31, 2026, further bolstered by the June 2026 Tolmar deal.

Key Investment Risks

Clinical development risk inherent to oncology therapies, particularly in highly challenging indications like glioblastoma and pancreatic cancer.
Regulatory approval hurdles and potential delays in FDA PMA submissions.
Pre-revenue status with substantial ongoing cash burn from multiple parallel clinical trials.
Dependence on strategic partners like Tolmar for commercial execution in key markets.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to meet primary endpoints in the ReSTART pivotal skin cancer trial.
Unanticipated serious adverse events (SAEs) leading to FDA clinical holds on the REGAIN or IMPACT trials.
Termination or material negative modification of the Tolmar collaboration agreement.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.