Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc

AMRNYSE

SectorMaterials

IndustryCoking Coal

Beta (adjusted)0.74

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $168.22Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $2.1B

Enterprise Value $1.8B

Shares Outstanding 12.7M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend30 Nov 2023

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) is the largest metallurgical coal producer in the United States, boasting a robust asset base and a 65% stake in the Dominion Terminal Associates (DTA) export terminal. While the company has demonstrated exceptional capital discipline—returning $1.2 billion to shareholders via buybacks since 2022—it is currently navigating a challenging operational environment. Q1 2026 results were heavily impacted by planned maintenance outages at DTA and elevated operational costs driven by war-related diesel and supply inflation. With approximately 48% of its 2026 metallurgical coal committed and priced, AMR has partial revenue visibility, but persistent cost pressures and soft global steel demand warrant a cautious near-term outlook.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$160.00

Mean target$169.80

High · most bullish analyst$189.39

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Base CaseCentral scenario

The base case assumes that global metallurgical coal prices stabilize and operational headwinds from the DTA terminal upgrades subside in the second half of 2026. Under this scenario, AMR successfully achieves its 2026 shipment guidance of 15.1 to 16.5 million total tons and keeps its cost of coal sales within the guided range of $95.00 to $101.00 per ton. Share buybacks continue to support EPS, offsetting near-term margin compression.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Largest U.S. producer of metallurgical coal with a highly competitive export infrastructure, including a 65% ownership stake in the DTA terminal.
Aggressive capital return program that has repurchased approximately 7.0 million shares (reducing basic shares outstanding by ~32%) for $1.2 billion since March 2022.
Strong balance sheet with minimal long-term debt ($12.2 million) and robust total liquidity of $476.2 million as of March 31, 2026.

Key Investment Risks

High sensitivity to cyclical global steel demand and metallurgical coal pricing fluctuations.
Persistent inflationary pressures on key inputs, particularly diesel and repair parts, which could force an upward revision of cost guidance.
Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions that impact export shipping routes and terminal operations.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A formal upward revision of the 2026 cost of coal sales guidance above $101.00 per ton due to persistent diesel inflation.
A severe downturn in global steel production leading to widespread contract cancellations or deferrals of committed metallurgical coal volumes.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.