Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Dossier - Source-backed chat

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

ALNYNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)0.51

Intrinsic Value $610.09median of 6 methods · middle span $200-$4,265based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $246.74Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 147% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+147%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $33B

Enterprise Value $32.3B

Shares Outstanding 142.8M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Alnylam combines rapid commercial expansion, quarterly GAAP profitability, a large cash position and a broad RNAi pipeline with material launch-execution uncertainty. Second-quarter 2026 product revenue rose 74% year over year and TTR revenue rose 89%, but management reduced full-year TTR guidance after U.S. second-line AMVUTTRA demand normalized following an initial period of pent-up demand. The resulting evidence is operationally constructive but mixed.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets25 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$230.00

Mean target$372.29

High · most bullish analyst$536.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$230.0020%

U.S. second-line AMVUTTRA demand slows more than management currently expects, causing TTR or total product revenue to miss revised guidance, while one or more late-2026 clinical readouts fail to de-risk the pipeline. Continued investment in pivotal trials and commercialization would then reduce the earnings benefit of revenue growth.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$372.2956%

Matches the consensus mean

Alnylam delivers within revised FY2026 product-revenue guidance as AMVUTTRA demand continues growing at a slower normalized rate, Rare-disease products remain comparatively stable, and the announced pipeline milestones are substantially completed.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$536.0024%

AMVUTTRA demand remains strong enough to reach the upper portion of revised 2026 guidance, international expansion adds momentum, and the four announced second-half clinical readouts strengthen confidence in future products. Successful execution would reinforce the Alnylam 2030 objectives of TTR leadership, at least two additional transformative medicines beyond TTR and sustained profitable growth.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 total net product revenue reached $1.172 billion, increasing 74% year over year, while total TTR revenue reached $1.030 billion and increased 89%.
AMVUTTRA is approved across both ATTR cardiomyopathy and hereditary ATTR polyneuropathy, and management continues expanding its geographic reach and evidence base.
The Alnylam 2030 strategy targets global TTR leadership, more than 40 clinical programs, at least two new transformative medicines beyond TTR, at least 25% total-revenue CAGR through 2030 and an approximately 30% non-GAAP operating margin.

Key Investment Risks

Management reduced FY2026 TTR guidance to $4.2-$4.5 billion after concluding that initial U.S. second-line demand benefited from pent-up demand and subsequently normalized.
Commercial performance is increasingly concentrated in AMVUTTRA: it generated $1.012 billion of the company's $1.172 billion second-quarter 2026 product revenue, while ONPATTRO revenue declined 65% year over year.
The long-term strategy depends on successful clinical development, regulatory review, reimbursement, manufacturing, product launches and third-party collaborations across several investigational programs.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.