Ally Financial Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Ally Financial Inc

ALLYNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryCredit Services

Beta (adjusted)1.06

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $37.62Price as of 30 Sep 2026

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Market Cap $11.4B

Enterprise Value $20.7B

Shares Outstanding 313.1M diluted

Next Earnings Date16 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend31 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Ally entered the second half of 2026 with improving profitability, expanding net interest margin, stronger year-over-year retail-auto credit trends and continued asset growth. Second-quarter adjusted EPS increased 22% year over year to $1.21, core ROTCE reached 11.8%, and net interest margin excluding OID reached 3.63%. The offset is continued sensitivity to consumer-auto credit, deposit and funding costs, interest rates, and capital consumption from balance-sheet growth. A Hold assessment is appropriate because operating momentum is constructive.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets17 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$45.00

Mean target$53.70

High · most bullish analyst$58.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$45.0019%

Consumer-auto losses exceed the revised outlook, asset growth falls below guidance, or deposit competition reverses margin gains. Higher provisions and reduced capital flexibility then outweigh franchise growth and weaken earnings and tangible-book-value development.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$53.7058%

Matches the consensus mean

Ally broadly delivers its FY2026 outlook: average earning assets grow 3%-5%, consolidated net charge-offs remain within 1.20%-1.30%, and margin holds near or above the second-quarter level. Earnings improve, but consumer-credit and funding sensitivity limit conviction.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$58.0023%

Margin expansion persists, retail-auto losses continue improving, and strong application volume converts into attractively priced originations. Average earning assets meet or exceed the 3%-5% full-year growth outlook while capital remains resilient, producing stronger earnings and ROTCE.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 adjusted EPS increased 22% year over year to $1.21, adjusted net revenue increased 10% to $2.3 billion, and core ROTCE reached 11.8%.
Net interest margin excluding OID rose to 3.63%, supported by lower funding costs and disciplined deposit pricing.
Consumer auto originations reached $13.3 billion from record application volume of 4.6 million, while retail-auto net charge-offs improved to 1.57%.
The 10.1% CET1 ratio and improving credit trends provide a measure of capital resilience while Ally continues balance-sheet growth.

Key Investment Risks

Ally remains materially exposed to consumer-auto credit performance; unemployment, used-vehicle values and borrower affordability can affect delinquencies, charge-offs and provisions.
The earnings outlook is sensitive to deposit pricing, wholesale funding costs and changes in interest rates, which can reverse net-interest-margin expansion.
Growth in earning assets consumes capital and could constrain distributions if credit costs rise or regulatory capital requirements become more restrictive.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.