Allstate Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryProperty & Casualty Insurance Beta (adjusted)0.44 Intrinsic Value $233.28median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $221.86Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $56.1B Enterprise Value $62.8B Shares Outstanding 259.6M diluted Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend31 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Allstate entered the second half of 2026 with strong underwriting profitability, policy growth, investment income and capital returns. Second-quarter Property-Liability underwriting income reached $2.006 billion, its recorded combined ratio improved to 86.6, and policies in force increased 2.6% year over year. The principal counterweights are catastrophe volatility and rising underlying homeowners loss costs. The recommendation reflects operating quality and risk balance rather than asserted valuation upside. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$176.00 Mean target$274.32 High · most bullish analyst$334.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $176.0020% A heavier catastrophe period, adverse reserve development or persistent underlying loss-cost inflation reverses recent combined-ratio gains. July catastrophe losses were already estimated at $682 million, while the second-quarter homeowners underlying combined ratio increased 2.9 points year over year because of higher loss costs. Base CaseCentral scenario $274.3256% Matches the consensus meanUnderwriting remains profitable and policies continue growing, but results normalize from the exceptionally strong first half as catastrophe losses and homeowners loss-cost pressure persist. Bull CaseUpside scenario $334.0024% Sustained auto profitability, profitable homeowners growth, continued policy expansion and higher investment income support durable capital generation. The second quarter produced a Property-Liability combined ratio of 86.6, $2.006 billion of underwriting income and $1.009 billion of net investment income, while management returned $1.3 billion through repurchases and dividends. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |