Allison Transmission Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryAuto Parts Beta (adjusted)0.98 Intrinsic Value $154.34median of 6 methods · middle span $72-$325based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $113.26Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 36% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $9.4B Enterprise Value $13.1B Shares Outstanding 83M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend21 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Allison enters the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: Q2 consolidated sales reached USD 1,566 million, legacy Allison Transmission sales set a quarterly record, and management raised full-year guidance. The completed Off-Highway acquisition materially expands Allison's addressable markets and offers a stated USD 120 million annual run-rate synergy opportunity, while major defense awards support longer-duration demand. These positives are balanced by USD 3,715 million of net debt, a much lower Off-Highway margin than the legacy transmission business, and meaningful integration and cyclical end-market exposure. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$105.00 Mean target$139.40 High · most bullish analyst$185.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $105.0020% The bear case assumes consolidated sales or adjusted EBITDA fall below the lower end of guidance, Off-Highway margins remain at or below the Q2 level, and weaker agriculture or other cyclical markets delay integration benefits and debt reduction. Base CaseCentral scenario $139.4057% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes FY2026 performance remains within management's updated sales, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free-cash-flow ranges, while strong cash generation produces gradual deleveraging and Off-Highway margins improve from their Q2 level. Bull CaseUpside scenario $185.0023% The bull case assumes results approach the upper ends of FY2026 guidance, Off-Highway profitability improves as the stated USD 120 million synergy program advances, and recently announced defense programs strengthen the multi-year order profile. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |