Allied Gold Corp Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryGold Beta (adjusted)0.80 Intrinsic Value $19.60median of 6 methods · middle span $2-$26based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $20.88Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 6% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.9B Enterprise Value $2.6B Shares Outstanding 139.3M diluted Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Allied Gold Corp is currently in a transitional phase, defined by a pending CAD 44.00 per share all-cash acquisition by Zijin Gold International. While the transaction has cleared Canadian (Investment Canada Act) and regional African (ECOWAS, COMESA) regulatory hurdles, it faces delays securing outbound M&A approval from China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) due to valuation premium and Mali jurisdiction risk concerns. Consequently, the outside date has been extended to July 29, 2026. Operationally, Allied Gold continues to perform strongly, delivering a 14% year-over-year increase in Q1 2026 gold production to 96,016 ounces, driven by stripping optimizations in Côte d'Ivoire. However, elevated AISC of $2,264 per ounce (impacted by higher gold-price-linked royalties) and a net loss of $58.3 million highlight near-term cost pressures. The upcoming mid-2026 first gold pour at the low-cost Kurmuk project in Ethiopia remains a key operational catalyst. Given the significant 19% arbitrage spread relative to the CAD 44.00 offer price, the stock is a Hold, balancing high-yielding arbitrage potential against the downside risk of a deal break. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $25.50 The acquisition agreement is terminated due to a failure to secure Chinese regulatory approval or escalating geopolitical instability in Mali. The stock falls back to its pre-announcement trading range, reflecting a standalone valuation discount and high West African jurisdictional risk. Base CaseCentral scenario $37.31 The acquisition remains pending as regulatory dialogues continue, potentially requiring a further extension of the outside date toward September 2026. Operational performance remains stable with sequential cost improvements as Sadiola transitions to higher-grade fresh ore feeds and Kurmuk begins initial production. Bull CaseUpside scenario $44.00 The NDRC grants outbound M&A approval ahead of the July 29, 2026 deadline, allowing the transaction to close smoothly at the CAD 44.00 cash offer price. Operationally, the Kurmuk project achieves first gold on schedule in mid-2026 and ramps up rapidly, while Sadiola's Phase 1 expansion successfully lowers unit costs. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |