Alliance Resource Partners, LP Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryThermal Coal Beta (adjusted)0.48 Intrinsic Value $23.06median of 4 methods · middle span $18-$28based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $24.29Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.1B Enterprise Value $3.6B Shares Outstanding 128.7M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend7 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) presents a compelling high-yield opportunity for income-focused investors, supported by a robust domestic contract book and expanding royalty segments. While the broader market transitions toward renewable energy, traditional baseload power demand remains resilient, delaying coal plant retirements and stabilizing ARLP's core business. The partnership's strategic diversification into oil & gas royalties—highlighted by a major $206 million acquisition in June 2026—provides a natural hedge and a long-term growth runway. Although near-term distribution coverage is tight at 1.0x following operational headwinds in Q1 2026, the completion of planned longwall moves and steady pricing support the sustainability of its attractive 9.5%+ yield. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$29.00 Mean target$31.17 High · most bullish analyst$33.50 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $29.0015% Persistent operational disruptions, further asset impairments at the Mettiki mine, or a sharp decline in domestic natural gas prices depress thermal coal demand. If distribution coverage falls consistently below 1.0x, management may be forced to cut the quarterly distribution below $0.60 per unit to preserve balance sheet flexibility, leading to unit price depreciation. Base CaseCentral scenario $31.1755% Matches the consensus meanARLP successfully delivers on its FY2026 coal sales guidance of 33.75 to 35.25 million tons, with over 95% of volumes already committed and priced. Operational efficiencies improve following the completion of the Hamilton mine longwall move, and the Mettiki mine situation stabilizes. The oil & gas royalty segment continues its steady growth, comfortably supporting the quarterly distribution of $0.60 per unit (annualized $2.40) at a stable valuation. Bull CaseUpside scenario $33.5030% Accelerated electricity demand from AI data centers and industrial electrification delays coal plant retirements across key utility markets (MISO/PJM). This structural demand boost allows ARLP to secure higher-priced multi-year contracts. Simultaneously, the newly expanded oil & gas royalty platform generates record cash flows due to elevated crude oil and NGL prices, driving distribution coverage back toward 1.3x and enabling distribution increases. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |