Allegion plc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Allegion plc

ALLENYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustrySecurity & Protection Services

Beta (adjusted)0.90

Intrinsic Value $149.14median of 6 methods · middle span $122-$257based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $153.77Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 3% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $13.1B

Enterprise Value $14.8B

Shares Outstanding 86.3M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend15 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Allegion entered the second half of 2026 with strong Americas-led organic growth, margin expansion and a raised full-year outlook. Its established brands, channel relationships and focus on electronic access and recurring-value solutions support durable growth. The appropriate stance is therefore operationally constructive but valuation-neutral.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets11 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$160.00

Mean target$174.64

High · most bullish analyst$200.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$160.0020%

Organic growth falls below management's range as International weakness persists or spreads, while margin and adjusted-EPS performance deteriorate from Q2 levels.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$174.6455%

Matches the consensus mean

Allegion delivers within its 3.5%-4.5% organic-growth and $8.85-$9.00 adjusted-EPS guidance ranges, supported by Americas demand and operating execution, while International performance remains mixed.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$200.0025%

Organic growth remains above the upper end of guidance, Americas momentum persists, International returns to growth, and electronic and recurring-value solutions deepen Allegion's competitive position.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 2026 organic revenue increased 6.9%, including 8.9% growth in Allegion Americas, while adjusted operating margin reached 24.2%.
Allegion's strategy combines established security brands with electronic access, connected technologies, partnerships and recurring-value solutions.

Key Investment Risks

Allegion International organic revenue declined 1.2% in Q2 2026, showing uneven geographic momentum.
The long-term growth thesis depends on continued innovation and successful execution in electronics, connected access and recurring-value offerings.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.