Allegiant Travel Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryAirlines Beta (adjusted)1.35 Intrinsic Value $91.88median of 6 methods · middle span $81-$515based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $75.79Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 21% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.1B Enterprise Value $4.3B Shares Outstanding 27.3M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend14 May 2024 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) has demonstrated exceptional operational execution in early 2026, delivering record Q1 revenue and TRASM despite capacity reductions. However, the company faces a highly volatile fuel cost environment and significant integration risks following the closing of its $1.5 billion acquisition of Sun Country Airlines in May 2026. While long-term synergies from combining two high-margin, low-utilization leisure carriers are promising, near-term profitability is expected to be pressured by rising unit costs and weaker off-peak demand, justifying a Hold stance until integration milestones are met. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$105.00 Mean target$135.79 High · most bullish analyst$165.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Severe integration bottlenecks, labor friction, or escalating fuel costs (exceeding $4.35/gallon) severely compress margins. A broader macroeconomic slowdown dampens discretionary leisure travel, leading to lower load factors and forcing aggressive fare discounting. Base CaseCentral scenario The integration of Sun Country Airlines proceeds as planned, allowing Allegiant to optimize its combined network and distribute its Boeing 737 MAX order book efficiently. Strong peak-period leisure demand continues to support high yields and TRASM growth, offsetting moderate fuel price pressures and unit cost increases. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |