Allarity Therapeutics Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)0.65 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $1.05Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $16.7M Enterprise Value $20.6M Shares Outstanding 17M diluted All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Allarity Therapeutics is a clinical-stage precision medicine company leveraging its proprietary Drug Response Predictor (DRP) platform to select patients most likely to benefit from its lead candidate, stenoparib. By focusing on a highly selected patient population, Allarity aims to improve therapeutic benefit rates and clinical outcomes in difficult-to-treat cancers. The company's near-term focus is on advancing stenoparib in advanced ovarian cancer and expanding into relapsed small cell lung cancer (SCLC) in collaboration with the US Veterans Administration. Backed by a strengthened cash position of $29.8 million as of Q1 2026 and a clear regulatory path under FDA Fast Track designation, Allarity represents a high-upside opportunity in the precision oncology space. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$10.25 Mean target$10.25 High · most bullish analyst$10.25 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $1.1520% The bear case reflects potential clinical delays, safety concerns, or failure to show significant therapeutic benefit in the selected patient cohorts. High cash burn from advancing trials toward pivotal phases could exhaust the current cash runway, forcing dilutive equity issuances or triggering restrictive redemption clauses under the Streeterville Capital promissory notes. Base CaseCentral scenario $6.0050% The base case assumes steady clinical progress for stenoparib, with the API manufacturing campaign completing on schedule in Q3 2026. The company maintains its cash runway through disciplined spending and strategic use of its equity line and debt facilities. Clinical data presentations, such as the Trial-in-Progress poster at the ESMO Gynaecological Cancers Congress 2026, continue to build scientific validation and support a moderate valuation rerating. Bull CaseUpside scenario $9.7530% The bull case is driven by successful clinical execution of the Phase 2 stenoparib trials in ovarian cancer and SCLC, demonstrating superior overall survival correlated with high DRP scores. Rapid regulatory approval under Fast Track designation, combined with the commercial launch of the stenoparib-specific DRP companion diagnostic, unlocks a multi-billion dollar market. Exclusivity is protected by the newly allowed USPTO patent extending the IP horizon by 11 years. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |