Alkermes plc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Alkermes plc

ALKSNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Beta (adjusted)0.51

Intrinsic Value $23.11median of 4 methods · middle span $17-$29based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $40.52Price as of 30 Sep 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 43% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $6.8B

Enterprise Value $7.8B

Shares Outstanding 166.9M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Alkermes has strengthened its neuroscience franchise through the addition of LUMRYZ, continued LYBALVI growth, and advancement of alixorexton into phase 3 development. These positives are balanced by Avadel integration and financing obligations, mixed performance within the established portfolio, and the substantial clinical and regulatory uncertainty that remains around alixorexton.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets17 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$38.00

Mean target$56.00

High · most bullish analyst$72.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$38.0020%

LUMRYZ integration or demand underperforms management's guidance, LYBALVI growth slows, and alixorexton encounters a material safety, efficacy, enrollment, or regulatory setback that reduces expected pipeline value.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$56.0058%

Matches the consensus mean

LUMRYZ and LYBALVI remain within their 2026 guidance ranges, the established portfolio provides operating support, and the Brilliance phase 3 program continues without a material safety or development setback.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$72.0022%

LUMRYZ and LYBALVI reach or exceed the upper ends of 2026 guidance, acquisition integration remains effective, and the Brilliance studies reinforce alixorexton's differentiated efficacy and tolerability profile across both narcolepsy types.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

The Avadel acquisition added LUMRYZ and an established narcolepsy commercial organization, giving Alkermes an immediate commercial position in sleep medicine.
Second-quarter 2026 proprietary-product net sales reached USD 411.7 million, supported by LUMRYZ, VIVITROL, ARISTADA, and LYBALVI.
Alixorexton generated positive phase 2 results in narcolepsy types 1 and 2 and is now being evaluated in the phase 3 Brilliance program.

Key Investment Risks

The Avadel transaction increased integration complexity and introduced significant acquisition financing obligations.
ARISTADA second-quarter 2026 net sales declined year over year, demonstrating that growth is not uniform across the proprietary portfolio.
Alixorexton remains investigational, and positive phase 2 findings do not ensure phase 3 success or regulatory approval.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.