Alkami Technology Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware - Application Beta (adjusted)0.73 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $13.69Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $1.5B Enterprise Value $1.8B Shares Outstanding 107.6M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Alkami Technology (ALKT) is a leading cloud-native digital sales and service platform provider for regional banks and credit unions. The company is demonstrating robust top-line momentum, driven by organic user expansion, new logo wins, and successful cross-selling of its integrated Digital Sales & Service Platform (DSSP) following the MANTL acquisition. While GAAP profitability remains a near-term challenge due to temporary database technology costs and acquisition-related amortization, Alkami's high recurring revenue (96% subscription), low churn (<1% of ARR), and expanding Adjusted EBITDA margins highlight strong operating leverage and long-term value creation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$19.00 Mean target$20.86 High · most bullish analyst$23.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Macroeconomic headwinds and margin pressures on regional banks lead to delayed IT spending and longer sales cycles. Integration friction with MANTL slows down cross-sell momentum, and temporary database technology costs persist into 2027, depressing gross margins and delaying the path to GAAP profitability. Base CaseCentral scenario Alkami continues to execute on its DSSP cross-sell strategy, driving high single-digit ARPU growth and steady new logo additions. Temporary database technology costs normalize by the end of 2026, allowing non-GAAP gross margins to reach ~65% and Adjusted EBITDA margins to expand to 18.2% for the full year. The company successfully deploys its $100 million share repurchase program to enhance shareholder value. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |