Alico Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Alico Inc

ALCONASDAQ

SectorConsumer Staples

IndustryAgricultural Products

Beta (adjusted)0.95

Intrinsic Value $10.29median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $38.58Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 73% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (-73%)

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Market Cap $286.2M

Enterprise Value $313.5M

Shares Outstanding 7.6M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date23 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend2 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Alico, Inc. is successfully executing a historic strategic transformation, transitioning from a weather-dependent citrus grower into a diversified land management and real estate development company. By winding down its legacy citrus operations, Alico has substantially eliminated agricultural volatility while unlocking massive asset value from its 46,000-acre Florida land portfolio. The company's robust balance sheet, highlighted by $52.9 million in cash as of March 31, 2026, extends its financial runway through fiscal year 2028. This liquidity provides management with the flexibility to advance high-value real estate entitlements, such as the Corkscrew Grove East Villages, on its own timeline without capital constraints.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets2 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$44.00

Mean target$44.50

High · most bullish analyst$45.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$29.9620%

Regulatory delays in state and federal permitting for key development projects extend the development timeline, while a slowdown in Florida real estate demand reduces the pace of opportunistic land sales. Higher-than-expected holding costs for non-revenue-generating land parcels compress operating margins.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$44.5060%

Matches the consensus mean

Alico continues to execute its land monetization strategy in line with guidance, delivering approximately $14 million in Adjusted EBITDA for fiscal year 2026. Real estate development projects proceed within expectations, and the company maintains a strong cash position of approximately $40 million by fiscal year-end, supported by steady progress in the Corkscrew Grove entitlement process.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$54.0030%

Rapid acceleration of state and federal permitting for the Corkscrew Grove East Villages, combined with opportunistic land sales at premium valuations, drives the net asset value (NAV) of the land portfolio toward the upper end of management's $650 million to $750 million estimate. Strong demand for agricultural leases pushes farmable land utilization to 100%, generating highly predictable recurring cash flows.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Substantial asset backing with a 46,000-acre Florida land portfolio valued between $650 million and $750 million, compared to a market capitalization of approximately $320 million.
Elimination of weather-dependent citrus volatility through the strategic wind-down of citrus operations.
Strong liquidity profile with $52.9 million in cash and $92.5 million in available credit, extending the financial runway through fiscal year 2028.
High-margin recurring revenue from agricultural leasing, with 97% of farmable acreage utilized under long-term leases.

Key Investment Risks

Regulatory and permitting risks associated with securing state and federal entitlements for large-scale real estate developments.
Sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions in the Florida real estate and construction markets.
Execution risk during the transition from traditional agribusiness to active real estate development.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A material denial or prolonged delay of state or federal environmental permits for the Corkscrew Grove East Villages.
A significant decline in Florida land values that impairs the estimated net asset value of the portfolio.
Inability to maintain high utilization rates on leased agricultural land, leading to increased holding costs.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.