Alibaba Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryBroadline Retail Beta (adjusted)0.68 Intrinsic Value $156.43median of 5 methods · middle span $109-$387based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $107.54Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 45% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $267.4B Enterprise Value $256.4B Shares Outstanding 2.5B diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date24 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend11 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary In the June 2026 quarter, AI Cloud and Compute Services revenue grew 45%, AI-related product revenue reached approximately US$1.8 billion, and cloud adjusted EBITA margin expanded to approximately 12%. Commerce indicators were mixed: 88VIP membership reached approximately 64 million and quick-commerce revenue grew 45%, while customer-management revenue grew only 1% on a like-for-like basis. Nearly US$10 billion of quarterly capital expenditure and the placement of 710 million new shares demonstrate the scale and financing cost of the AI strategy. The balance between accelerating cloud monetization and execution, capital-intensity, and dilution risk supports a Hold pending sustained returns on the enlarged investment program. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$92.44 Mean target$189.57 High · most bullish analyst$242.59 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $92.4420% Cloud growth falls below 40%, the triple-digit AI-product growth streak ends, or the enlarged AI investment program fails to sustain margin improvement. Nearly US$10 billion of quarterly capital expenditure and 710 million newly issued shares would then impose greater cash-return and dilution costs without commensurate monetization. Base CaseCentral scenario $189.5755% Matches the consensus meanAI Cloud and Compute Services growth remains at least near the 40% level reported for the preceding March quarter, but elevated infrastructure investment absorbs part of the operating benefit. Commerce remains stable, with 88VIP growth and quick-commerce scale partly offset by modest customer-management revenue growth. Bull CaseUpside scenario $242.5925% Cloud growth remains at or above the June quarter's 45% rate, AI-related product revenue preserves triple-digit growth, and cloud operating leverage continues beyond the approximately 12% adjusted EBITA margin. Quick-commerce loss reduction and AliExpress profitability broaden earnings participation. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |