Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp Dossier
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SectorUtilities IndustryUtilities - Diversified Beta (adjusted)0.82 Intrinsic Value $5.87median of 6 methods · middle span $5-$6based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $5.03Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 17% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.9B Enterprise Value $10.4B Shares Outstanding 772.4M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend29 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (AQN) is undergoing a major strategic transformation to become a pure-play regulated utility. Following the successful divestiture of its non-regulated renewable energy business to LS Power and its stake in Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure, the company has significantly reduced its complexity and leverage, retiring $1.6 billion in debt. Under the leadership of new CEO Rod West and CFO Rob Stefani, AQN is executing a 'Back to Basics' strategy focused on operational excellence, constructive regulatory outcomes, and disciplined capital allocation. While the long-term outlook is supported by a robust $3.2 billion regulated utility capex plan for 2026–2028 and a projected 6% rate base CAGR, near-term earnings remain under pressure from rising operating expenses, wildfire insurance costs, and the transition of power supply agreements. Consequently, a Hold recommendation is warranted as the company stabilizes its core regulated operations. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$6.00 Mean target$6.75 High · most bullish analyst$7.25 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully executes its $3.2 billion capital expenditure plan through 2028, driving steady rate base growth from $8.2 billion to $9.7 billion. Regulatory rate cases in key jurisdictions like California (CalPeco), Missouri (Empire District), and Massachusetts (New England Gas) continue to deliver constructive outcomes, offsetting near-term operational headwinds. The dividend is maintained at $0.26 per share, and leverage metrics continue to improve without the need for equity issuances through 2027. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |