Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc

ARENYSE

SectorReal Estate

IndustryOffice REITs

Beta (adjusted)1.10

Intrinsic Value $100.31median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $47.46Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 111% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+111%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $8.2B

Enterprise Value $20.5B

Shares Outstanding 171M diluted

Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Alexandria retains differentiated life-science campuses, long leases, strong collections, and meaningful embedded rent from signed leases, but the near-term setup remains execution-dependent. Second-quarter operating occupancy was 86.9%, same-property NOI declined 10.6%, and management expects substantial downtime on identified 2027 expirations. The counterweight is a 4.0-percentage-point signed-leasing pipeline, targeted capital recycling, lower planned construction spending, and a stated 4Q26 leverage objective. A Hold is appropriate until occupancy conversion, asset-sale proceeds, and deleveraging become visible in reported results.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets14 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$46.00

Mean target$52.21

High · most bullish analyst$60.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$46.0023%

Asset sales slip or clear at unattractive economics, leverage remains above the 4Q26 target, and lease commencements fail to offset expirations. The identified 2027 expirations of approximately 1.38 million RSF and $100.5 million of annual rental revenue experience the projected 12-24 months of downtime, prolonging occupancy and NOI pressure while recently priced 7.25% junior subordinated capital raises the cost of funding.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$52.2156%

Matches the consensus mean

Occupancy finishes within management's 86.2%-87.8% range while lease commencements partially offset known expirations. Alexandria makes sufficient progress on dispositions and partial-interest sales to reduce leverage, but negative same-property NOI and weak renewal spreads keep the recovery gradual.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$60.0021%

Signed leases on 1.4 million RSF convert substantially on schedule, lifting occupancy toward 90.9% including future commencements and adding approximately $69 million of annual rental revenue. Capital recycling approaches the $2.9 billion midpoint, leverage reaches the 5.6x-6.2x target, and scheduled development deliveries add the anticipated NOI without requiring materially higher construction spending.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Executed leases covering 1.4 million RSF represented four percentage points of future occupancy and approximately $69 million of expected annual rental revenue, providing a visible internal occupancy catalyst.
Portfolio quality remains supported by 99.9% second-quarter collections, 57% of annual rental revenue from investment-grade or publicly traded large-cap tenants, and a 7.7-year weighted-average remaining lease term.

Key Investment Risks

Operating occupancy was 86.9% and second-quarter same-property NOI declined 10.6%, showing that current vacancy and known expirations are materially affecting operations.
Management identified approximately 1.38 million RSF of 2027 expirations carrying $100.5 million of annual rental revenue and expected downtime of 12-24 months.
The deleveraging plan depends on completing a large disposition and capital-sourcing program; only $170 million was completed and approximately $1.16 billion was pending as of August 3, 2026.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.