Alexander's Inc Dossier
|
SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Retail Beta (adjusted)0.84 Intrinsic Value $189.61median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $246.50Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 23% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.3B Enterprise Value $1.8B Shares Outstanding 5.1M diluted Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Alexander's, Inc. (NYSE: ALX) operates as a highly concentrated real estate investment trust (REIT) managed externally by Vornado Realty Trust. The company's investment profile is defined by extreme tenant concentration, with Bloomberg L.P. accounting for approximately 61% of rental revenues in 2025. While the 11-year lease extension with Bloomberg through 2040 provides long-term structural visibility, near-term cash flows are pressured by a massive $56.8 million rent abatement running from April to December 2026. This is offset by the successful monetization of the vacant Rego Park I property to Northwell Health for $235.5 million gross ($203 million net proceeds) in May 2026. Given the high dividend yield of ~7% supported by reserve accounts and asset sale liquidity, but limited organic growth prospects and high concentration risks, a Hold recommendation is warranted. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$212.00 Mean target$212.00 High · most bullish analyst$212.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The prolonged rent abatement and broader office market weakness pressure the company's liquidity, forcing a reduction in the quarterly dividend. Additionally, any credit deterioration at Bloomberg L.P. or failure to lease vacant retail spaces at remaining properties would severely impact the valuation. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully navigates the 2026 Bloomberg rent abatement period using its lender-approved free rent reserve account, maintaining its quarterly dividend of $4.50 per share. Net proceeds of $203 million from the Rego Park I sale are deployed conservatively to pay down debt or fund capital improvements, stabilizing the balance sheet. Occupancy across the remaining four properties remains stable. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |