Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)1.16 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $1.23Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $74.2M Enterprise Value $4.2M Shares Outstanding 60.4M diluted Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Aldeyra Therapeutics is at a critical regulatory crossroads following the receipt of its third FDA Complete Response Letter (CRL) for reproxalap in dry eye disease on March 17, 2026. While the FDA did not request new clinical trials, it cited a lack of substantial evidence and inconsistent trial results across the completed clinical program. The company's near-term valuation is highly binary, heavily dependent on the outcome of its upcoming Type A meeting with the FDA in Q2 2026 and the potential execution of its lucrative co-development option agreement with AbbVie. Given the speculative nature of regulatory negotiations and the lack of commercial revenue, a Hold recommendation is warranted until a clear, non-dilutive path to approval is established. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$2.00 Mean target$7.17 High · most bullish analyst$13.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $2.0020% The FDA stands firm on its rejection, and subsequent appeals are denied. AbbVie lets its option expire, and Aldeyra is forced to conduct expensive new Phase 3 trials, severely depleting its $70 million cash reserves and forcing highly dilutive equity raises, or leading to the abandonment of the dry eye program. Base CaseCentral scenario $5.5050% The Type A meeting results in a compromise where the FDA requires a highly targeted, low-cost confirmatory study or a specific patient population sub-analysis. Approval is delayed by 12–18 months, keeping the AbbVie option intact but pushing out commercialization timelines. Cash runway remains sufficient into 2028 to support this path. Bull CaseUpside scenario $9.0030% The FDA accepts Aldeyra's totality of evidence argument during the Type A meeting or subsequent appeal, leading to reproxalap approval without requiring additional clinical trials. This triggers AbbVie's option exercise, unlocking a $100 million upfront payment, a $100 million approval milestone, and a 60/40 U.S. profit split, while validating the RASP modulator platform. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |