Albemarle Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Albemarle Corp

ALBNYSE

SectorMaterials

IndustrySpecialty Chemicals

Beta (adjusted)1.23

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $105.78Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $12.5B

Enterprise Value $14.1B

Shares Outstanding 117.9M diluted

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend11 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Albemarle's operating recovery is substantial: second-quarter sales increased 31%, adjusted EBITDA increased 155%, and free cash flow reached $638 million as lithium pricing, Specialties performance and productivity improved. Debt reduction has also materially strengthened liquidity and leverage. However, management's FY2026 scenarios demonstrate exceptional sensitivity to lithium prices, with adjusted EBITDA ranging from $0.9-$1.0 billion near $10/kg LCE to $4.2-$4.4 billion near $30/kg.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets20 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$83.28

Mean target$173.56

High · most bullish analyst$225.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$83.2825%

Lithium pricing retreats toward or below approximately $10/kg LCE, production disruptions reduce Energy Storage volume below guidance, or geopolitical pressures impair Specialties performance. Albemarle's lowest published FY2026 scenario produces only $4.1-$4.3 billion of sales and $0.9-$1.0 billion of adjusted EBITDA, materially reducing operating leverage and cash-generation expectations.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$173.5655%

Matches the consensus mean

Lithium pricing remains near the approximately $20/kg LCE case, supporting management's FY2026 ranges of $5.7-$6.0 billion in sales and $2.4-$2.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA. Energy Storage volume reaches 225-235 kilotons, Specialties achieves its revised outlook, and capital spending remains near $500 million.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$225.0020%

Lithium pricing moves toward Albemarle's approximately $30/kg LCE scenario while Energy Storage volume remains within the 225-235 kiloton range. In that case, management's FY2026 framework indicates $7.5-$7.8 billion of sales and $4.2-$4.4 billion of adjusted EBITDA. Stronger Specialties performance, continued productivity gains and the reduced debt burden would reinforce cash generation.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA increased 155% to $858 million, with Energy Storage adjusted EBITDA increasing 229% and Specialties increasing 61%.
Second-quarter free cash flow was $638 million, while June 2026 liquidity was approximately $3.2 billion and the reported net-debt-to-adjusted-EBITDA ratio was approximately 0.5.
Management raised the FY2026 Specialties outlook, reduced forecast capital expenditures to approximately $500 million and reported productivity tracking toward the high end of its $100-$150 million target.

Key Investment Risks

Earnings remain highly exposed to lithium pricing: the company's published FY2026 adjusted-EBITDA scenarios span $0.9-$1.0 billion at approximately $10/kg LCE and $4.2-$4.4 billion at approximately $30/kg.
Energy Storage guidance depends on joint-venture and mine execution; the Talison CGP3 fire delayed its ramp, although management expected Wodgina output to substantially offset the impact.
Kemerton's remaining train was idled because improved lithium prices were insufficient to offset the economics of Western hard-rock conversion, while Middle East uncertainty remains relevant to Specialties operations.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.