Akamai Technologies Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure Beta (adjusted)0.76 Intrinsic Value $81.08median of 6 methods · middle span $58-$108based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $106.35Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 24% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $15.3B Enterprise Value $17.9B Shares Outstanding 150.7M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Akamai's investment case is balanced. Security revenue grew 10% and Cloud Infrastructure Services grew 39% year over year in the second quarter of 2026, supported by more than $2.8 billion of year-to-date multi-year CIS contract commitments. These growth engines are offset by a 6% decline in delivery and other cloud applications revenue, a five-percentage-point contraction in non-GAAP operating margin to 25%, and capital expenditures equal to 32% of revenue. The evidence supports monitoring contract conversion and margin recovery rather than adopting an unqualified bullish position. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$93.00 Mean target$157.43 High · most bullish analyst$195.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $93.0025% Delivery declines deepen, CIS contract deployment or utilization lags infrastructure spending, and security growth slows. Continued high capital expenditures and weaker utilization push non-GAAP operating margin below the guided range, delaying returns from the cloud and AI buildout. Base CaseCentral scenario $157.4356% Matches the consensus meanSecurity and Cloud Infrastructure Services growth continue to offset declining delivery revenue, allowing Akamai to remain within its 2026 revenue guidance of $4.445 billion to $4.530 billion and its non-GAAP operating-margin guidance of 25% to 26%. Capital intensity remains elevated while contracted cloud demand is provisioned. Bull CaseUpside scenario $195.0019% Security and cloud infrastructure sustain strong growth, signed CIS commitments convert into revenue on schedule, and Akamai successfully commercializes distributed AI inference across its edge footprint. Delivery revenue stabilizes while operating leverage improves as infrastructure utilization rises. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |