Agree Realty Corp Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Retail Beta (adjusted)0.64 Intrinsic Value $63.48median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $66.81Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $8.3B Enterprise Value $12.2B Shares Outstanding 122.7M diluted Next Earnings Date20 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend31 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Agree Realty offers a favorable combination of resilient net-lease operations, visible earnings momentum and monthly income. At June 30, 2026, occupancy was 99.8%, investment-grade tenants generated 65.8% of annualized base rent and the weighted-average remaining lease term was 7.7 years. Second-quarter AFFO per share increased 7.4% year over year, and management raised full-year 2026 AFFO guidance to $4.57-$4.59 per share. The latest issuer stock quote reviewed was $72.50, while the declared $0.267 monthly dividend equates to $3.204 annually. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$80.00 Mean target$84.86 High · most bullish analyst$93.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $80.0020% The bear case assumes higher financing costs or unfavorable capital-market conditions reduce acquisition economics, occupancy falls below 99%, investment-grade rent exposure weakens and equity issuance creates greater per-share dilution than anticipated. A resulting slowdown in AFFO-per-share growth and weaker demand for rate-sensitive REIT shares could produce a $65 price. Base CaseCentral scenario $84.8655% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes management delivers within its $4.57-$4.59 full-year 2026 AFFO-per-share guidance, occupancy remains at least 99%, investment-grade rent exposure stays above 60% and external growth proceeds without material tenant-credit losses. Bull CaseUpside scenario $93.0025% The bull case assumes investment activity is completed near the upper end of management's raised range, recently acquired assets sustain approximately 7% initial capitalization rates, occupancy remains near 99.8%, tenant credit quality remains strong and a more supportive rate environment improves investor demand for durable REIT income. Under those conditions, continued AFFO growth and dividend expansion could support a $90 share price. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |