Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)0.71 Intrinsic Value $59.26median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $33.25Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 78% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+78%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2B Enterprise Value $1.9B Shares Outstanding 59.4M diluted Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Agios Pharmaceuticals is transitioning into a high-growth, commercial-stage rare disease leader. The successful U.S. launch of AQVESME (mitapivat) in thalassemia, combined with a robust cash position of $1.0 billion, provides a strong foundation. While the recent discontinuation of tebapivat in lower-risk MDS is a setback, the primary growth engine remains intact with the upcoming sNDA submission for mitapivat in sickle cell disease under the FDA's accelerated approval pathway. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$32.00 Mean target$45.75 High · most bullish analyst$73.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $32.00 AQVESME commercial adoption slows due to reimbursement hurdles or slower-than-expected patient onboarding. The FDA requests additional data or delays the accelerated approval of mitapivat in sickle cell disease, and competitive pressures from other therapies limit market share. Base CaseCentral scenario $45.75 Matches the consensus meanAQVESME launch progresses steadily with normalized prescription-to-initiation timelines. The FDA accepts and files the sNDA for mitapivat in sickle cell disease in Q3 2026, with approval contingent on the ongoing confirmatory trial. Tebapivat development continues in other rare indications. Bull CaseUpside scenario $73.00 Rapid commercial uptake of AQVESME in thalassemia exceeds expectations, and the FDA grants accelerated approval for mitapivat in sickle cell disease in late 2026/early 2027. Tebapivat Phase 2 data in sickle cell disease demonstrates superior potency, establishing a dominant long-term franchise in hemoglobinopathies. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |