Agilon Health Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Agilon Health Inc

AGLNYSE

SectorHealth Care

IndustryMedical Care Facilities

Beta (adjusted)2.35

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $79.59Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $1.3B

Enterprise Value $1.3B

Shares Outstanding 16.8M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

agilon health is transitioning from a period of aggressive growth to a focus on operational discipline and sustainable profitability. Following a challenging 2025 marked by elevated medical cost trends and significant net losses, the company has implemented a 1-for-25 reverse stock split to maintain its NYSE listing and appointed healthcare veteran Tim O'Rourke as CEO. Q1 2026 results demonstrated a strong profitability inflection, driven by improved risk score visibility (data pipeline covering 85% of lives) and disciplined contracting. While the upward revision of 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $10M–$40M is encouraging, a cautious stance is warranted until the sustainability of these cost-containment measures and favorable medical cost trends is proven over multiple quarters.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets13 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$31.00

Mean target$110.92

High · most bullish analyst$146.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Elevated medical utilization and inpatient cost trends persist, exceeding the 7.4% reserve rate. The company faces friction in renegotiating the 50% of payer contracts open for renewal in 2027, leading to further market exits and membership declines. Operational disruptions from the leadership transition or failure to sustain risk-adjustment accuracy drag Adjusted EBITDA back into negative territory, delaying cash flow breakeven past 2027.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The company successfully executes its operational turnaround under new CEO Tim O'Rourke. Medical cost trends stabilize near the projected 7% level, and clinical programs (such as the congestive heart failure pathway) continue to reduce avoidable hospital admissions. Risk score adjustments remain highly visible through the improved data pipeline, allowing agilon to achieve its raised 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $10M–$40M and progress toward cash flow breakeven by 2027.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong Q1 2026 earnings beat demonstrating a clear inflection in profitability and operational discipline.
Improved data pipeline visibility covering 85% of members, leading to a revised risk score lift estimate of ~1.5% for 2026.
Appointment of Tim O'Rourke as CEO, bringing over 25 years of deep payer, provider, and value-based care experience.
Successful implementation of a 1-for-25 reverse stock split, securing NYSE listing compliance and improving stock marketability.

Key Investment Risks

Historically high volatility in medical cost trends and utilization rates within the Medicare Advantage space.
Significant concentration of revenue and dependency on Medicare Advantage payors.
Execution risk associated with renegotiating 50% of payer contracts open for renewal in 2027.
Top-line pressure from strategic market and payor exits focused on profitability over volume.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Medical cost trends rising significantly above the 7.4% reserve level in upcoming quarters.
Failure to achieve the revised full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $10M–$40M.
A reversal of the positive risk-adjustment visibility or data pipeline failures.
Inability to secure favorable terms on the 50% of contracts up for renewal in 2027, leading to mass partner exits.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.