Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted
Thesis Summary

Agilent entered the final quarter of FY2026 with broad-based growth, higher margins and raised full-year guidance. Q3 core revenue grew 7.3%, all three operating groups expanded revenue, and non-GAAP operating margin reached 28.3%. The quality of the quarter requires normalization because tariff refunds contributed approximately 110 basis points to non-GAAP margin and $0.06 to non-GAAP EPS.

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This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.
Street view · analyst 12-month targets19 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026
Low · most bearish analyst$135.00
Mean target$160.11
High · most bullish analyst$185.00
Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026
Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date
Bear CaseDownside scenario
$135.0019%

Demand or execution weakens enough for Q4 core growth to fall below 5.2% or FY2026 non-GAAP EPS to fall below $6.18. The downside would be more consequential if margin performance also deteriorates after removing the Q3 tariff-refund benefit or if acquisition, integration and transformation costs remain elevated.

Base CaseCentral scenario
$160.1158%
Matches the consensus mean

Agilent finishes FY2026 within its stated ranges of $7.49-$7.51 billion revenue, 5.8%-6.0% core growth and $6.18-$6.21 non-GAAP EPS, with operating-margin expansion above 130 basis points.

Bull CaseUpside scenario
$185.0023%

Agilent delivers Q4 core growth at or above the 6.2% upper end of guidance, FY2026 non-GAAP EPS at or above $6.21, and margin expansion exceeding 130 basis points. Sustained demand and execution under the Ignite Operating System would support continued earnings momentum after normalizing tariff-refund benefits.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits
  • Broad-based Q3 execution: company core revenue grew 7.3%; Life Sciences and Diagnostics Markets, CrossLab and Applied Markets reported core growth of 10%, 5% and 7%, respectively; management also raised FY2026 revenue, margin and EPS guidance.
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Key Investment Risks
  • Q3 profitability included a nonrecurring tariff-refund benefit, while management identifies demand variability, currency, tariffs, supply-chain conditions, pricing pressure and acquisition integration among the uncertainties that could cause results to differ from guidance.
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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AI-assisted, source-linked narrative; figures from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market data. Dates shown per section. Not investment advice. Terms of Use.