AGCO Corp Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryAgricultural & Farm Machinery Beta (adjusted)1.04 Intrinsic Value $95.31median of 6 methods · middle span $73-$104based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $114.23Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 17% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $8B Enterprise Value $10.2B Shares Outstanding 71.8M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date30 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary AGCO Corporation is navigating a highly split agricultural cycle. While the Europe/Middle East (EME) region continues to carry the company's financial performance with strong operating margins and high-horsepower tractor demand, North America and Latin America remain under severe pressure. The company's strategic pivot toward high-margin precision agriculture through the PTx Trimble joint venture provides a strong long-term technology runway, but near-term performance is heavily constrained by low factory utilization in North America, high tariff headwinds, and tight farmer budgets globally. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$99.00 Mean target$123.13 High · most bullish analyst$151.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $99.0025% A slowdown in the EME region leaves AGCO without its primary profit engine, while North American and Latin American operations continue to post significant operating losses. High restructuring costs, persistent low factory utilization (around 30%), and prolonged weakness in commodity prices further compress consolidated margins. Base CaseCentral scenario $123.1350% Matches the consensus meanAGCO's performance remains split, with EME carrying the bulk of profitability while North America and Latin America slowly stabilize near breakeven. Precision agriculture initiatives continue to grow steadily, but overall demand is capped by flat global farm equipment demand and persistent tariff headwinds of approximately $135 million in 2026. Bull CaseUpside scenario $151.0025% The Europe/Middle East (EME) region maintains operating margins near or above 15%, successfully absorbing weak demand in other regions. Concurrently, the PTx Trimble joint venture accelerates high-margin precision agriculture retrofit sales across mixed fleets, and a recovery in global farm income drives a rapid rebound in North American factory utilization from its current low levels. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |