Affiliated Managers Group Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Affiliated Managers Group Inc

AMGNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryAsset Management

Beta (adjusted)1.07

Intrinsic Value $727.93median of 6 methods · middle span $168-$4,037based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $365.61Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 99% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+99%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $9.5B

Enterprise Value $12B

Shares Outstanding 28M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend10 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

AMG entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: record assets under management, positive total net client cash flows, substantial alternative-strategy inflows, and rapid growth in Adjusted EBITDA and Economic earnings per share. New Affiliate investments and share repurchases also support per-share compounding. These strengths are balanced by substantial differentiated long-only outflows, market-sensitive assets under management, execution risk around new investments, and reliance on supplemental non-GAAP measures.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets7 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$330.00

Mean target$433.29

High · most bullish analyst$512.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$330.0019%

A market reversal reduces assets under management while long-only redemptions persist and alternative inflows weaken. Lower market-linked fees, less favorable performance-fee realization, or weaker-than-expected contributions from new Affiliates would pressure earnings despite share repurchases.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$433.2956%

Matches the consensus mean

Alternative-strategy demand and contributions from recent investments continue to offset differentiated long-only redemptions, producing positive but less exceptional organic growth and continued earnings expansion. Capital allocation remains balanced between growth investments and repurchases.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$512.0025%

Sustained private-markets and liquid-alternatives inflows, successful contributions from new Affiliates, and continued disciplined repurchases could extend AMG's earnings momentum. The second quarter demonstrated this operating leverage through 44% year-over-year Adjusted EBITDA growth and 54% Economic EPS growth.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

AMG reported record quarter-end assets under management of $942.4 billion, 22% above the level cited for twelve months earlier.
Second-quarter net client cash flows were positive $12.9 billion, including approximately $29 billion of alternative-strategy net inflows.
Second-quarter Adjusted EBITDA increased 44% year over year to $316.0 million, while Economic earnings per share increased 54% to $8.29.
AMG repurchased approximately $375 million of common stock during the first half of 2026, supporting per-share compounding.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter differentiated long-only net client cash flows were negative, including $14.5 billion of equity outflows and $1.5 billion of multi-asset and fixed-income outflows.
Assets under management and related fees remain sensitive to market movements; market changes added $55.9 billion to AUM during the second quarter.
The growth case depends partly on successful deployment into and performance of new Affiliates; new investments added $59.8 billion of AUM during the first half of 2026.
Economic EPS and Adjusted EBITDA are supplemental non-GAAP measures whose adjustments can complicate comparisons with GAAP earnings.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.