AES Corp Dossier
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SectorUtilities IndustryUtilities - Diversified Beta (adjusted)0.98 Intrinsic Value $16.39median of 5 methods · middle span $16-$46based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $14.90Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 10% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $10.6B Enterprise Value $39.1B Shares Outstanding 717M diluted Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend31 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary AES is principally a merger-arbitrage security after stockholders approved its acquisition by the GIP- and EQT-led consortium. The contractual consideration is $15.00 per share in cash, compared with AES's displayed price of $14.75 on August 31, 2026. Stockholder approval substantially advanced the transaction, but federal, state and foreign regulatory approvals and other customary conditions remain, with closing expected in late 2026 or early 2027. The limited remaining headline upside must therefore be weighed against closing delay or failure risk. Ordinary-course dividends may continue before closing, subject to Board approval. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$15.00 Mean target$15.00 High · most bullish analyst$15.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $10.6915% A regulatory denial, termination or material delay prevents timely completion. The $10.69 downside reference is the issuer's pre-rumor 30-day volume-weighted average price implied by the disclosed $15.00 consideration and 40.3% premium, rounded to the nearest cent; it is a transaction-failure reference rather than a fresh analyst consensus target. Base CaseCentral scenario $15.0060% Matches the consensus meanThe transaction receives the outstanding regulatory approvals and closes by early 2027 at $15.00 per share. Stockholders have already approved the acquisition, while the remaining discount reflects time value and residual regulatory and execution risk. Bull CaseUpside scenario $15.0025% The remaining approvals arrive promptly and the transaction closes near the early end of the issuer's window. Stockholders receive the contractual $15.00 cash consideration, with the possibility of ordinary-course dividends declared before closing subject to Board approval. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |