AerSale Corp Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryAerospace & Defense Beta (adjusted)0.51 Intrinsic Value $8.56median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $5.24Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 63% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+63%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $250.1M Enterprise Value $395.8M Shares Outstanding 46.3M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary AerSale is transitioning its business model from volatile whole-asset flight equipment sales toward more predictable, recurring revenue streams driven by engine/aircraft leasing and Technical Operations (TechOps) MRO services. While Q1 2026 demonstrated robust Adjusted EBITDA growth (more than doubling year-over-year to $7.4 million) and narrowed net losses, the company remains GAAP unprofitable. The long-term investment case hinges on the commercial monetization of its proprietary engineered solutions, specifically the AerAware™ Enhanced Flight Vision System, and the successful ramp-up of expanded MRO facilities. Given near-term execution risks and high capital expenditures for feedstock, a Hold recommendation is warranted until consistent profitability and AerAware order momentum materialize. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$7.50 Mean target$7.75 High · most bullish analyst$8.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $5.5620% AerAware™ commercialization faces prolonged adoption delays or weak customer interest, failing to offset the high development costs. TechOps margins remain pressured by persistent skilled labor shortages and elevated start-up costs, while volatile whole-asset sales remain depressed, leading to continued GAAP losses and high cash burn. Base CaseCentral scenario $7.0050% AerSale continues to steadily grow its leasing portfolio (maintaining ~18-20 engines and 3-5 freighters on lease) and expands its TechOps MRO services under long-term agreements. AerAware™ achieves gradual, moderate commercial adoption, and feedstock acquisitions remain disciplined, leading to a slow path toward sustained GAAP net income. Bull CaseUpside scenario $12.8530% Rapid commercial adoption of AerAware™ by major passenger and cargo airlines drives high-margin proprietary product sales. Simultaneously, the newly expanded MRO facilities in Millington, TN and Hialeah Gardens, FL achieve optimal capacity utilization, leading to significant operating leverage and a sharp inflection in GAAP profitability. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |