Aercap Holdings NV Dossier - Source-backed chat

Aercap Holdings NV

AERNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryRental & Leasing Services

Beta (adjusted)0.96

Intrinsic Value $194.77median of 6 methods · middle span $91-$328based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $143.52Price as of 30 Sep 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 36% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $22.6B

Enterprise Value $64.7B

Shares Outstanding 176.1M diluted

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend12 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

AerCap enters the second half of 2026 with favorable aircraft-supply conditions, strong demand for aviation assets, investment-grade ratings from all three major agencies, substantial liquidity and leverage below its stated ceiling. Second-quarter adjusted EPS was $5.14, adjusted return on equity was 18%, book value per share rose approximately 16% year over year, and management raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $16.80. The principal offsets are sensitivity to airline credit, funding markets, interest rates, geopolitical disruptions, taxes and execution across a large capital-intensive fleet. At the August 28 market close of $147.49, the balance of operating momentum and financial flexibility supports a Buy view, although the scenario targets below are analytical estimates rather than an issuer-published analyst-consensus anchor.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets10 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$165.00

Mean target$179.30

High · most bullish analyst$190.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$165.0018%

Airline credit deterioration, geopolitical disruption, higher funding costs, weaker asset-sale conditions or delivery and placement issues reduce earnings and capital returns. Leverage moves toward or above the stated ceiling and the market places less value on the company's earnings and book-value progression.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$179.3058%

Matches the consensus mean

Lease revenue grows modestly, asset sales remain profitable, funding access remains strong and AerCap delivers approximately its raised 2026 adjusted-EPS guidance while preserving leverage discipline.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$190.0024%

Sustained aircraft shortages and air-travel demand keep lease economics and asset-sale values strong, while disciplined acquisitions, deliveries and repurchases continue to compound per-share value. Adjusted leverage remains well below the 2.7x ceiling and earnings exceed the raised 2026 guidance.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong operating momentum: second-quarter 2026 adjusted EPS was $5.14, adjusted return on equity was 18%, and management raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $16.80.
Per-share compounding: book value per share reached $119.21, approximately 16% above June 2025, while 2026 year-to-date repurchases exceeded $1.4 billion.
Financial flexibility: adjusted leverage was 2.05x versus a 2.7x target, next-12-month sources-to-uses coverage was 1.9x, available liquidity was approximately $22 billion, and all three major agencies assigned investment-grade ratings.

Key Investment Risks

AerCap is exposed to airline and other lessee creditworthiness, including payment defaults, restructurings and the cost or difficulty of repossessing and remarketing aviation assets.
The capital-intensive model is sensitive to interest rates, capital-market availability, refinancing conditions and credit-rating changes.
Wars, sanctions, tariffs, regulatory changes, supply-chain constraints and other geopolitical disruptions can affect customers, aircraft deliveries, asset values and fleet deployment.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.