Aeluma Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Aeluma Inc

ALMUNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySemiconductors

Beta (adjusted)0.26

Intrinsic Value $13.17median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $12.36Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 7% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $238.1M

Enterprise Value $183.5M

Shares Outstanding 17.7M diluted

Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Aeluma, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALMU) is a transformative semiconductor company specializing in high-performance, scalable photonic and electronic technologies. By utilizing a proprietary platform that integrates compound semiconductor materials (such as Indium Gallium Arsenide or InGaAs) directly onto large-diameter silicon substrates, Aeluma circumvents the industry-wide supply constraints and high costs associated with traditional Indium Phosphide (InP) substrates. This capital-light, CMOS-compatible manufacturing approach positions the company to capture significant market share across high-growth verticals, including AI data center optical interconnects, shortwave infrared (SWIR) sensing, defense, aerospace, and quantum computing. Despite near-term contract execution delays, Aeluma's robust balance sheet (with $37.8 million in cash) and expanding contract backlog support a strong commercialization runway.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets2 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$30.00

Mean target$30.50

High · most bullish analyst$31.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$20.0015%

Persistent government contract delays and execution bottlenecks continue to defer revenue recognition. To sustain its high G&A and R&D cash burn, the company aggressively utilizes its $50.0 million ATM equity program, causing substantial shareholder dilution and depressing the stock price.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$25.3360%

Aeluma successfully executes on its narrowed FY2026 revenue guidance of $4.2M to $4.6M as contract start-of-work delays resolve. The company continues to leverage its $37.8M cash cushion to fund R&D and expand its portfolio of 36 issued and pending patents, while steadily converting its $8.9M in remaining performance obligations into recognized revenue.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$31.0025%

Rapid adoption of Aeluma's CMOS-compatible platform by hyperscalers looking to resolve Indium Phosphide supply shortages for AI data center optical interconnects. Non-dilutive government and aerospace contracts accelerate, and commercial wafer partnerships with Tower Semiconductor and Sumitomo Chemical scale up ahead of schedule, driving exponential revenue growth and early profitability.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Proprietary heterogeneous integration technology that bypasses expensive and fragile Indium Phosphide substrates, reducing manufacturing costs by an estimated 5x to 10x.
Strong balance sheet with $37.8 million in cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2026, providing a substantial runway for commercialization.
Growing contract momentum with six new development engagements in FY2026 totaling $5 million in value and a contracted backlog of $8.9 million.
Strategic manufacturing partnerships established with leading players Tower Semiconductor and Sumitomo Chemical Advanced Technology.

Key Investment Risks

Revenue concentration and dependence on U.S. government and aerospace contracts, which are highly susceptible to execution delays and federal budget/shutdown disruptions.
Potential equity dilution from the active $50.0 million at-the-market (ATM) sales agreement.
High operating cash burn relative to current commercial revenues, with a GAAP net loss of $5.15 million for the nine months ended March 31, 2026.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to meet the narrowed FY2026 revenue guidance of $4.2 million to $4.6 million.
A material breakdown or termination of wafer manufacturing partnerships with Tower Semiconductor or Sumitomo Chemical.
Severe dilution resulting from rapid, large-scale capital draws under the ATM program without corresponding commercial revenue milestones.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.