AECOM Dossier - Source-backed chat

AECOM

ACMNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryEngineering & Construction

Beta (adjusted)0.95

Intrinsic Value $79.82median of 6 methods · middle span $61-$87based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $58.95Price as of 30 Sep 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 35% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $7.6B

Enterprise Value $9.2B

Shares Outstanding 130.1M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date17 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend1 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

AECOM's record backlog, strong design book-to-burn ratio and continued project awards support a constructive long-term demand outlook. However, the $337 million Construction Management project charge, reduced fiscal 2026 cash-flow outlook, lower expected net service revenue and multi-year claim-recovery process materially weaken near-term earnings quality and execution visibility. A Hold balances the durable design franchise and long-term margin ambitions against elevated project-risk uncertainty.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets12 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$65.00

Mean target$86.92

High · most bullish analyst$106.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$65.0023%

The Construction Management project incurs further delays or cost revisions, claim recoveries take longer than expected, cash flow undershoots guidance and weaker project starts reduce backlog conversion. These outcomes would undermine confidence in the fiscal 2028 margin and fiscal 2029 adjusted EPS objectives.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$86.9256%

Matches the consensus mean

Backlog supports moderate underlying design growth, but delayed project starts, Middle East conflict and the legacy Construction Management project constrain fiscal 2026 results and cash conversion. The affected project reaches substantial completion around the stated second quarter of fiscal 2027 timetable, while claim recoveries remain deferred.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$106.0021%

Record wins convert efficiently into revenue, the design pipeline remains strong, International momentum broadens growth, and no further material Construction Management charges arise. Successful execution supports the reaffirmed fiscal 2028 margin objective and fiscal 2026-to-2029 adjusted EPS growth target.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Third-quarter fiscal 2026 backlog reached a record $27.816 billion, up 13%, supported by $4.2 billion of wins and a 1.6 book-to-burn ratio.
The underlying design business grew despite one fewer working day, while International net service revenue increased and International backlog reached a record level.
Management reaffirmed a 20%+ margin exit rate by fiscal 2028 and 15%+ adjusted EPS CAGR from fiscal 2026 through fiscal 2029, excluding the Construction Management charge.
The August 2026 appointment on New Zealand's Northland Corridor provides additional evidence of continuing transportation-infrastructure demand and AECOM's ability to participate in major programs.

Key Investment Risks

A $337 million pre-tax Construction Management project charge produced a quarterly operating loss and exposed residual risk from legacy contract terms.
The affected project is not expected to reach substantial completion until the second quarter of fiscal 2027, while full resolution of related claims could require several years and litigation.
Fiscal 2026 free cash flow guidance was reduced to approximately $300 million, and expected net service revenue was lowered because of delayed Construction Management starts and conflict in the Middle East.
Even excluding the project charge, third-quarter segment adjusted operating margin declined 60 basis points year over year to 16.5%.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.