Aebi Schmidt Holding AG Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryMachinery Beta (adjusted)1.91 Intrinsic Value $18.36median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $10.58Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 74% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+74%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $821M Enterprise Value $1.3B Shares Outstanding 77.6M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend20 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Aebi Schmidt Holding AG has transformed into a scaled global leader in specialty vehicles following its landmark merger with The Shyft Group in July 2025 and subsequent NASDAQ listing. The combined group is uniquely positioned to capture mission-critical infrastructure, municipal, and airport maintenance demand across North America and Europe. Backed by a record order backlog of $1.3 billion as of Q1 2026 and strong secular tailwinds in municipal electrification and autonomous airport operations, the company is well-positioned to meet its ambitious FY2026 guidance. While integration ramp-up costs have temporarily weighed on North American margins, the underlying demand remains robust, and the stock offers attractive upside potential as synergies are realized. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$17.00 Mean target$17.00 High · most bullish analyst$17.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $11.5015% Prolonged integration friction with The Shyft Group, persistent margin pressure in North America due to elevated labor and facility ramp-up costs, and a slowdown in municipal budgets or airport capital expenditure. Revenue falls to the lower end of guidance ($1.95 billion) and leverage remains elevated above 2.0x. Base CaseCentral scenario $15.0060% Steady execution of the integration plan with Shyft, achieving FY2026 net sales of approximately $2.05 billion (in line with consensus of $2.049 billion) and Adjusted EBITDA of $186 million. Leverage successfully reduces to or below 2.0x by year-end, and North American margins stabilize as walk-in van demand recovers. Bull CaseUpside scenario $16.5025% Accelerated synergy realization from the Shyft merger, rapid margin recovery in North America as new facilities ramp up, and faster-than-expected commercialization of autonomous airport vehicles with Yeti Move. This drives FY2026 revenue to the high end of guidance ($2.15 billion) and expands EBITDA margins toward the mid-teens target ahead of schedule. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |