Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Dossier - Source-backed chat

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.

AMDNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySemiconductors

Beta (adjusted)2.00

Intrinsic Value $369.04median of 6 methods · middle span $252-$1,100based on filings through 27 Jun 2026

Market Price $611.76Price as of 30 Sep 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 40% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $998.7B

Enterprise Value $996.8B

Shares Outstanding 1.7B diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend27 Apr 1995

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

AMD is executing strongly: Q2 2026 revenue increased 50% year over year, Data Center revenue increased 107%, and management guided Q3 revenue to approximately $13 billion. Helios, MI400, sixth-generation EPYC and ROCm.ai broaden AMD from a component supplier toward a full-stack AI platform, supported by announced deployments involving Microsoft, Anthropic, OpenAI and Meta. However, AMD's August 28, 2026 intraday price of $471.79 already discounts substantial execution. A Hold rating balances exceptional AI growth and a credible multi-year roadmap against product-ramp risk, intense competition, export controls, supply dependence and limited upside to the internally developed base-case target.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets47 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$365.00

Mean target$612.84

High · most bullish analyst$1,250.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$365.0020%

Helios deployment or qualification delays, memory or foundry constraints, weaker AI-infrastructure spending, export restrictions or competitive pressure impair the expected accelerator ramp. Slower Data Center growth and margin compression would cause a substantial reassessment of expectations embedded in the share price.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$612.8450%

Matches the consensus mean

AMD delivers within Q3 guidance, begins material Helios customer shipments in the second half of 2026 and maintains strong but moderating Data Center growth. Client and Embedded remain supportive while Gaming weakness persists.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$1,250.0030%

Helios converts announced hyperscaler and AI-laboratory commitments into rapid shipments, MI400 and EPYC sustain Data Center growth near AMD's long-term trajectory, and ROCm adoption reduces the software barrier to accelerator share gains. Successful gigawatt-scale deployments and disciplined margin expansion would justify a premium outcome.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 2026 Data Center revenue reached $6.718 billion, increasing 107% year over year, with demand for EPYC processors and Instinct GPUs identified as the principal drivers.
AMD launched an integrated rack-scale platform combining Instinct MI455X GPUs, sixth-generation EPYC CPUs, Pensando networking and ROCm software, with announced participation from major cloud and AI customers.
AMD's stated three-to-five-year model targets greater-than-35% company revenue CAGR, greater-than-60% Data Center revenue CAGR and greater-than-35% non-GAAP operating margin.

Key Investment Risks

AMD identifies intense competition, including Nvidia's data-center GPU position and proprietary software ecosystem, as a factor that can restrict market share and pressure margins.
AMD depends on third-party foundries and component suppliers; memory shortages, advanced-node capacity limits or rack-level component constraints could delay shipments and increase costs.
Evolving export controls have already affected Instinct products, and additional restrictions, tariffs or licensing conditions could reduce addressable demand and create further inventory charges.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.