Advanced Energy Industries Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Advanced Energy Industries Inc

AEISNASDAQ

SectorIndustrials

IndustryElectrical Equipment & Parts

Beta (adjusted)1.19

Intrinsic Value $257.13median of 4 methods · middle span $195-$319based on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $281.82Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $11.3B

Enterprise Value $11.2B

Shares Outstanding 38M diluted

Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend24 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Advanced Energy entered the second half of 2026 with broad demand strength, record quarterly revenue, improving margins and strong semiconductor and data-center exposure. Q2 revenue increased 30% year over year to $574.1 million, GAAP gross margin reached 41.1%, and management guided Q3 revenue to $640 million plus or minus $20 million. The opportunity is balanced by semiconductor cyclicality, trade and export-control exposure, execution risk and potential dilution associated with the 2031 convertible notes.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets12 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$370.00

Mean target$429.08

High · most bullish analyst$535.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$220.0020%

Revenue falls below the $620 million Q3 guidance floor, gross margin retreats below 40%, or semiconductor and data-center demand weakens while trade restrictions, manufacturing transitions or convertible-note dilution weigh on investor expectations.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$429.0855%

Matches the consensus mean

The company performs near its $640 million Q3 revenue midpoint, maintains approximately 40%-plus gross margin and converts semiconductor and AI-data-center product momentum into profitable growth through 2027.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$500.0025%

Revenue exceeds the $660 million upper end of Q3 guidance, gross margin remains at or above the Q2 level, and semiconductor share gains combine with accelerating adoption of Advanced Energy's 800 V data-center power architecture. Sustained execution would support a premium growth valuation.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 2026 revenue reached a record $574.1 million, up 30% year over year, while non-GAAP EPS of $2.74 exceeded the high end of guidance.
Growth is supported by two substantial markets: Q2 semiconductor-equipment revenue was $278.3 million and data-center-computing revenue was $191.5 million, complemented by new 800 V products for next-generation AI infrastructure.

Key Investment Risks

Results remain exposed to industry cyclicality, customer concentration, tariffs, export controls, supply disruptions, manufacturing-footprint transitions and the company's ability to secure design wins.
The $1.15 billion 0% convertible-note issuance increased debt and creates potential dilution above the initial conversion price, although capped-call transactions provide partial dilution protection.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.