Advanced Drainage Systems Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryBuilding Products & Equipment Beta (adjusted)1.19 Intrinsic Value $142.63median of 6 methods · middle span $118-$214based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $126.71Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 13% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $9.6B Enterprise Value $11B Shares Outstanding 77.3M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Advanced Drainage Systems entered fiscal 2027 with strong reported and organic growth, margin expansion, and a meaningful NDS contribution. First-quarter net sales increased 20.6% to $1.001 billion, organic net sales increased 9.2%, and adjusted EBITDA rose 28.8% to $358.3 million, producing a 35.8% margin. Management nevertheless retained rather than raised its full-year outlook and cautioned that first-quarter demand included purchases pulled forward ahead of pricing actions. A neutral stance is therefore appropriate pending evidence that organic growth and margin strength persist after this timing benefit. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$165.00 Mean target$183.36 High · most bullish analyst$207.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $165.0018% Residential and broader construction demand weaken, price increases disrupt ordering more than expected, or transportation and material inflation outpace offsets. NDS integration or cross-selling progresses more slowly, causing fiscal 2027 net sales or adjusted EBITDA to fall below management's guidance floors. Base CaseCentral scenario $183.3657% Matches the consensus meanFiscal 2027 results remain within management's confirmed ranges of $3.350-$3.550 billion in net sales and $1.000-$1.050 billion in adjusted EBITDA. NDS contributes incremental growth, while cautious construction demand and normalization of first-quarter sales pulled forward ahead of price actions limit upside. Bull CaseUpside scenario $207.0025% Organic share gains, material conversion, product innovation, and cross-selling of NDS and Allied Products remain strong after the first-quarter timing benefit. Price-cost execution and favorable product mix sustain elevated profitability, allowing results to approach or exceed the upper ends of the confirmed fiscal 2027 sales and adjusted EBITDA ranges. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |