ADT Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

ADT Inc

ADTNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustrySecurity & Protection Services

Beta (adjusted)1.03

Intrinsic Value $10.74median of 6 methods · middle span $8-$18based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $6.08Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 77% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+77%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $4.4B

Enterprise Value $12.1B

Shares Outstanding 730.6M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend10 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

ADT Inc. is a highly cash-generative, defensive business in the mature smart home security market. While the company trades at a low valuation multiple and generates strong free cash flow, it faces persistent headwinds from high customer attrition, intense competition from DIY alternatives (e.g., Amazon's Ring), and potential overhang from major shareholders (Apollo and State Farm) looking to divest their stakes. The company's pivot to digital customer acquisition channels and the rollout of its ADT+ platform are promising, but near-term top-line growth remains flat.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets5 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$7.00

Mean target$8.23

High · most bullish analyst$9.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Customer attrition rises above 13.5% due to aggressive pricing from DIY competitors and macroeconomic softness in the housing market. Refinancing of maturing debt at higher interest rates pressures cash flows, and large-scale secondary offerings by Apollo or State Farm create a persistent overhang on the stock price.

Base CaseCentral scenario

ADT maintains stable recurring monthly revenue (RMR) and achieves its full-year 2026 guidance of approximately 20% adjusted free cash flow growth. The company continues to return capital to shareholders through its $1.5 billion share repurchase program, offsetting potential selling pressure from major sponsors. Valuation multiples remain stable as operational efficiencies from AI integrations offset labor and customer acquisition costs.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong and resilient free cash flow generation with a high gross margin profile (~81%).
Industry-leading brand recognition and scale in the professional monitoring space.
Active capital return program supported by a $1.5 billion share repurchase authorization.

Key Investment Risks

High gross customer attrition (~13.1%) requiring continuous capital reinvestment to replace lost subscribers.
Intense competition from lower-cost, do-it-yourself (DIY) home security alternatives.
Significant debt load with refinancing risks in a higher interest rate environment.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Gross customer attrition rate rising consistently above 13.5%.
Adjusted free cash flow growth falling significantly below the guided 20% for FY 2026.
Failure of the ADT+ platform to drive lower customer acquisition costs or higher ARPU.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.