Adma Biologics Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Adma Biologics Inc

ADMANASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)0.85

Intrinsic Value $19.30median of 6 methods · middle span $14-$59based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $10.03Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 92% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+92%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $2.2B

Enterprise Value $2.3B

Shares Outstanding 234.4M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

ADMA Biologics presents a highly polarized investment narrative. On one hand, the company's operational execution is strong, highlighted by a 71% gross margin in Q1 2026, robust demand for its flagship IVIG therapy ASCENIV, and a solid net leverage ratio below 0.5x. On the other hand, the company is navigating severe headwinds, including a scathing short-seller report by Culper Research alleging channel stuffing and undisclosed related-party transactions, multiple active securities class action lawsuits, a 54% year-over-year decline in BIVIGAM revenue due to standard IG market dislocation, and the withdrawal of its long-term financial guidance. Given these unresolved legal and market-competitive risks, a Hold recommendation is warranted until there is greater clarity on revenue quality and internal controls.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets5 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$12.00

Mean target$17.00

High · most bullish analyst$21.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

The securities class action lawsuits gain traction, revealing material weaknesses in internal controls or forcing costly settlements. Accounts receivable write-downs occur as distributor inventory levels are found to be artificially inflated (channel stuffing). BIVIGAM revenue continues to deteriorate under intense competitive discounting, and total revenue falls below the revised FY 2026 guidance range.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The company successfully defends against the class action lawsuits, stabilizes BIVIGAM revenue through disciplined field execution, and continues to expand ASCENIV sales following its pediatric label expansion. Gross margins remain elevated above 60% due to yield-enhanced production benefits, and the company achieves its revised FY 2026 revenue guidance of $530 million to $560 million.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong demand for flagship product ASCENIV, which grew 28% year-over-year to $97.5 million in Q1 2026 and is insulated from standard IG market pressures.
Significant gross margin expansion to 71% in Q1 2026, driven by yield-enhanced production and a favorable product mix shift.
Robust cash generation with $58.2 million in cash from operations in Q1 2026 and a strong liquidity profile of $138.2 million in cash and equivalents.
Active capital return program, including a $200 million share repurchase initiative with approximately 3.7% of outstanding shares converted to treasury stock by Q1 2026.

Key Investment Risks

Active securities fraud class action lawsuits alleging a de facto channel stuffing scheme, undisclosed related-party distribution, and artificial revenue inflation.
Severe competitive pressures and pricing discounts in the standard IG market, causing BIVIGAM revenue to decline 54% year-over-year in Q1 2026.
Withdrawal of long-term financial guidance, signaling increased uncertainty regarding the company's multi-year growth trajectory.
High working capital requirements, with $222.1 million tied up in inventory and $135.9 million in accounts receivable as of Q1 2026.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Court denial of motions to dismiss in the pending securities class actions, leading to formal discovery on sales practices.
A restatement of historical financial results or a formal SEC investigation into ASCENIV distribution arrangements.
A sequential decline in ASCENIV revenue, indicating that distributor destocking is occurring or that underlying demand has peaked.
Failure to maintain positive operating cash flow, indicating that working capital imbalances are worsening.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.